Disorder in the court

Uncle Sam hangs on for webBy Steve Brawner
© 2016 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

Apparently we’ll spend the rest of the year with a 4-4 split on the Supreme Court, with the current vacancy left unfilled after the death of Justice Antonin Scalia. So here’s a scenario. Hillary Clinton beats Donald Trump in the election. Democrats take back the Senate. And then Clinton fills the vacancy by nominating President Obama.

Of all the facets of that scenario, the only one that’s completely unlikely is the last, and it’s not unthinkable. Obama is an attorney who appointed Clinton as secretary of state, so she kind of owes him. When asked earlier this year, she called his being a Supreme Court justice “a great idea.” Democrats would love it if she stuck her thumb in Republicans’ eyes that way. And Obama wouldn’t be the first to move from the White House to the Court. President William Howard Taft has already done it.

The rest is more likely but hardly certain. The latest average of polls by Real Clear Politics has Clinton beating Trump by nine points, and that’s before a potentially nasty fight at the Republican National Convention. In Senate races this year, 24 incumbent Republicans are up for re-election while Democrats are defending only 10 seats, so Democrats have an advantage on those numbers alone.

If Clinton wins and the Democrats retake the Senate, Republican senators might have to make some difficult decisions. They’ve been saying the voters should help pick the next justice through their choices in the election, but what would happen if Republicans are voted completely out of power? Would they give Obama’s nominee, Merrick Garland, or another nominee a second look while they still control the Senate between November and January, rather than take their chances with a Clinton nominee?

Arkansas’ two senators are taking different approaches. Sen. John Boozman says the next president should nominate the next justice, period. In a statement, he said, “Our country is very split and we are in the midst of a highly contested presidential election. My colleagues and I are committed to giving the American people a voice in the direction the court will take for generations to come.” His spokesman, Patrick Creamer, said Boozman’s position would not change even if Democrats win everything in November.

Sen. Tom Cotton, however, left himself some wiggle room. In his statement, he said, “In a few short months, we will have a new president and new senators who can consider the next justice with the full faith of the people. … The nomination should not be considered by the Senate at this time.” His spokesperson, Caroline Rabbitt, pointed to the “at this time” part and did not rule out Cotton considering Obama’s nominee after the November election.

At the very least, the Supreme Court sometimes will look like Congress in these coming months: divided and paralyzed. A 4-4 decision means the lower court’s ruling in that particular case will stand. Let’s hope those positions get filled if they come open.

This kind of standoff was bound to happen, I guess. The country, like the Supreme Court, is so divided that nation-changing court decisions will come down to one Supreme Court justice. In some ways, choosing that justice is more important than choosing the next president.

One other issue at play is the Founding Fathers’ really bad idea to give Supreme Court justices a lifetime appointment – to insulate them from politics, ha ha. Because of that lifetime appointment, presidents tend to pick someone as young as they can get away with. To Obama’s credit, Garland is 63, unlike the early-50-something-year-olds who have been nominated lately, or Justice Clarence Thomas, who was in his early 40s. Still, Garland could rule from the bench for at least two decades.

One good thing about this controversy is that it has reminded voters of the importance of this presidential duty. The next president could nominate at least four justices. In addition to Scalia’s replacement, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg is 83, Justice Anthony Kennedy is 79, and Justice Stephen Breyer is 77.

What happens if, after November, one party still controls the White House and the other the Senate? Will the two branches ever be able to agree on a pick before more vacancies occur?

Let’s hope so. Somebody has to do this job, and no one lives forever.

Kasich: What should have been

Hand with ballot and boxBy Steve Brawner
© 2016 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

“For all sad words of tongue or pen, the saddest are these, ‘It might have been!’” wrote the poet John Greenleaf Whittier.

I’m thinking that line is appropriate regarding the presidential campaign of Ohio Gov. John Kasich. Perhaps some Republican party types are thinking that as well. If not, they may be after November.

After winning his home state of Ohio, Kasich is now the last candidate standing between the nomination and Donald Trump or Sen. Ted Cruz – candidates many Republicans, particularly those in the establishment, can’t accept (Trump) or don’t like personally (Cruz).

Despite that victory, Kasich is now mathematically eliminated from winning the nomination. At best, he can win enough delegates to deny Trump a majority, leading to a contested convention when Republicans gather in Cleveland in July. And then, the theory is, maybe he can emerge as a consensus candidate. It’s possible, but it’s a long shot.

Yeah, I voted for Kasich – I and 15,304 other Arkansans, or 3.72 percent of Republican primary voters.

I did that because I believed he’s the most experienced, qualified candidate with the best record. He was chairman of the House Budget Committee in the 1990s, the last time Congress came close to balancing the budget, and then he became governor of Ohio and led the state in turning that state’s deficit into a surplus. No other candidate, Republican or Democrat, can say anything like that.

I also voted for him because of his common decency, a quality that has been unfortunately uncommon in this ugly election year. More than any other candidate, he has avoided disparaging others and has offered a positive, unifying vision for the country.

If Republicans really want to win the election and deny Hillary Clinton the presidency, Kasich should be their first choice. An average of polls by the website Real Clear Politics shows, in hypothetical match-ups, Clinton beating Trump by more than six points, while Cruz is leading Clinton by .8 of a point, a statistical tie. Sen. Marco Rubio, who dropped out of the race after losing his home state of Florida, was leading her by four points. Kasich, however, is beating her by more than seven points.

Those are national averages, but the United States does not actually have national elections. Instead, it has 51 state ones counting the District of Columbia, and of those, only a few are competitive, including Ohio, which has 18 of the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win. No Republican has ever been elected president without winning Ohio. Kasich is beating Clinton there by an average of almost 18 points.

Also really important is Pennsylvania, with 20 electoral votes. It’s voted Democratic in each of the last six elections, but some have been close. According to a recent Mercyhurst University poll, Kasich was trouncing Clinton 49-36 there. Meanwhile, she was beating Cruz 45-42 and Trump 43-35.

A Republican who wins both Ohio and Pennsylvania would be your next president.

Unfortunately, leading Arkansas Republicans did not bet on this horse. Thirty legislators endorsed Rubio. Gov. Asa Hutchinson did, too, during that brief period after Jeb Bush dropped out and Rubio became the darling of the establishment.

Hutchinson chose the candidate who seemed to have the best chance of beating Trump, despite Hutchinson’s having a lot in common with Kasich, including serving together in the U.S. House of Representatives and both accepting Medicaid expansion dollars under Obamacare as governors. Rather than refuse the money, Arkansas created the private option, which Hutchinson wants to continue as a program he is calling Arkansas Works.

Another 18 legislators and Secretary of State Mark Martin publicly endorsed Cruz Feb. 24.

If Hutchinson or anybody else instead had come out swinging for Kasich, it wouldn’t have made much difference. Voters don’t base their decisions on endorsements by elected officials – or newspaper columnists, thank goodness. Still, no Republican legislators or state officials endorsed the candidate who balances budgets, reaches across the aisle, and has the best chance of winning the general election. That’s notable, I guess.

Kasich and some of his supporters are still holding out hope that something crazy will happen at the convention. Maybe something will, but more than likely, they and some other Republicans will be left wondering what might have been. Actually, what should have been.

Related: For president, governors no longer need apply.

In West Memphis, it’s all connected

Junior Jeremy Paige is learning to become an aircraft mechanic, while senior Summer Abram plans to use the skills she learned in high school as a diesel mechanic to pay her way through school as she becomes a psychologist.

Junior Jeremy Paige is learning to become an aircraft mechanic, while senior Summer Abram plans to use the skills she learned in high school as a diesel mechanic to pay her way through school as she becomes a psychologist.

By Steve Brawner
© 2016 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

The late Lt. Governor Win Rockefeller used to say that the education system is like a string of water pipes laid end to end but not connected. In West Memphis, they’re connected.

The high school, known as the Academies at West Memphis, has a conversion charter, which is an arrangement with the Arkansas Department of Education where some of the usual rules don’t apply and the school can experiment and innovate.

Students there choose pathways that prepare them for a career and then can spend up to six of their eight high school periods a day at Arkansas State University Mid-South, the local community college 1.3 miles down the road. In fact, it’s possible for a 10th-grader, on the first day of school, to get on the bus and sit in a college class before ever sitting through a high school one.

High school students can take tuition-free, for-credit college classes at ASU Mid-South thanks to the Thomas Goldsby Scholarship, funded by a local oilman. If they’re dedicated enough, they can receive a college associate’s degree on the same stage where their receive their high school diploma. Then, because of ASU Mid-South’s connection with the ASU system and with various other four-year schools, they can further their education and receive a bachelor’s degree, even a master’s, on that same college campus.

In effect, West Memphis has become a college town without the state having to build a huge campus with dorms and a football stadium.

Most students who make the eight-minute bus ride from the high school to the community college aren’t seeking a college degree. Instead, they’re taking career-oriented classes in a variety of fields. For example, five high school students earned welding certifications last year and then after graduating went to work at TrinityRail Maintenance Services in Jonesboro earning about $18 an hour.

Perhaps the most interesting connection in West Memphis is the aircraft mechanics program shared by the high school, the college and FedEx, the Memphis-based package deliverer founded by Arkansas native Fred Smith. The company has invested $250,000 at ASU Mid-South to build a new FedEx Aviation Technology Center, which when completed this year will include aircraft hangar space and classrooms. It even donated a Boeing 727 plane whose shell is sitting on the college campus after being disassembled and transported by a Stuttgart company.

This means that, as part of his high school education, junior Jeremy Paige is learning to maintain a jet airplane. This time next year, he’ll be crawling around the plane as he earns his certification in airframe mechanics – the aircraft’s structure. After he graduates high school, he’ll further his education at ASU Mid-South and earn his certification in powerplant mechanics – the engine. With those two certifications, he can go to work for FedEx and make a six-figure income.

Meanwhile, senior Summer Abram is learning to be a FedEx diesel mechanic. She won’t make the same kind of money as Paige, but she has different long-term goals: Work while taking college courses and playing basketball at ASU Mid-South and studying to become a psychologist. If it all works out, she’ll be making a living at FedEx while in school instead of piling up student debt.

Is there a downside? Long term, perhaps there’s a danger that the pipeline will become too connected – that the system could just funnel students straight from school to their corporate sponsors’ workforce.

Of course, those sponsors are offering up to six-figure opportunities. Moreover, under this model, students have many choices other than a simple high school diploma, which is worth less than it used to be. As Dr. Glen Fenter, who was ASU Mid-South’s chancellor when all these deals were made, said, “The most powerful model for combatting the lingering vestiges of poverty in this country is to speed up the educational process, particularly for poor students.” Get them ready to earn a paycheck in a good job, he said, and then they can always travel different pathways from there.

How to do that? In West Memphis, they’re connecting high school to college and career opportunities, using a 1.3-mile pipeline and, for some, a jet airplane.

For more stories about how Arkansas schools are using innovative techniques to teach students, check out:

Goals, not grades, are the focus at Warren.

A marvelous day in a Marvell school.

No Child in Flippin left behind.

Less government, not no government

By Steve Brawner
© 2016 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

At the State Capitol this week, a high-profile Republican talked about reforming an important but imperfect government service, rather than complain about it being there.

Lt. Governor Tim Griffin recently completed an extensive review for Gov. Asa Hutchinson of the Department of Human Services, the sprawling state agency that handles human needs such as health care for Arkansans with low incomes or disabilities, paying for nursing home residents, and serving foster children.

Meeting with reporters in his office, Griffin said he found an agency that’s poorly organized into divisions that don’t communicate with each other, leading to waste, inefficiency and less effective services. An Arkansan served by more than one division must talk to each separately, with little help.

Griffin, who previously served four years as Arkansas’ 2nd District congressman, said this kind of organization exists in other agencies. Addressing it in DHS is most critical because it serves what he said are “vulnerable” Arkansans.

The presentation was completely constructive. He offered solutions. He was genuine in wanting better services for DHS clients. He didn’t dismiss the department as another example of hapless government. He didn’t blame anybody.

Griffin’s presentation was not the only example this week of Arkansas Republicans trying to make government work better and smarter, when it would be easier to just criticize it. On Monday, the Republican-dominated Health Reform Legislative Task Force voted to endorse Republican Gov. Asa Hutchinson’s Arkansas Works program, which is a continuation of the private option, which was created largely by Republican legislators.

The private option uses federal Medicaid dollars to purchase private health insurance for Arkansans with incomes up to 138 percent of the federal poverty line. It now provides insurance for 200,000 people.

It unquestionably is a government expansion, so many Republicans understandably don’t support it. Republicans who do are trying to make government work at the state level to address problems not being fixed at the federal level or through the private sector. It’s a tough call, and the Legislature may yet choose to end it. However, Louisiana at first said no to the Medicaid money, and now it’s changing its mind.

Republicans have long been more comfortable with government at the state and local levels than at the federal level. State and local governments are closer to the people. In Little Rock, constructive work does get done.

But the party’s rhetoric often doesn’t reflect that, at any level. While it’s the party of less government, it often sounds like it’s the party of no government.

Unfortunately, it’s painting itself in a box. The GOP says it wants to cut or end government programs it can’t cut or end. That means it breaks a lot of promises and disappoints a lot of people. Meanwhile, its base includes a lot of people age 60-plus who depend on government or soon will. So what does the GOP do with that?

So here’s where we are. One party says it wants to cut government unrealistically. The other party too often wants to grow government. What’s not being said enough is that government is sometimes the best bad answer we have, but that it should be smaller and that it should work better. Instead of ending government, or growing it, there should be more talk about reforming it. What Griffin did at DHS should be done everywhere.

In the presidential race, you know who’s sort of filling that niche now? Donald Trump. He doesn’t seem to have a well developed political philosophy, but he’s talking about bringing his supposed business competence to government. He certainly doesn’t talk much about cutting government, aside from repealing Obamacare. He doesn’t want to cut Social Security or Medicare. He wants to build up the military and enact tariffs on Chinese goods. He wants to build a wall along the border funded by Mexico, which can’t afford it, so American taxpayers would pick up the tab.

This election may have been an eye-opener for the GOP. It opposes government, but its voters are nominating a candidate who doesn’t.

Maybe, somewhere in our political discourse, there’s room for responsible candidates to talk knowledgeably about smaller, cheaper, smarter government – reforming it, in other words, because sometimes that’s the best an imperfect society can do.

That’s not pro-government. It’s pro-honesty, and it can happen, even in politics.

The craziest primary, hands down

By Steve Brawner
© 2016 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

I cannot believe I’m writing this, but last week saw two of the four remaining Republican presidential candidates commenting about the size of Donald Trump’s “hands.” I’m 46 years old, which means I’m at the age when I start looking at the past through rose-colored glasses, but I’m pretty sure presidential elections have never sunk this low in my lifetime.

How did we get here? Donald Trump ran for president and appealed to a part of the electorate that wasn’t inspired by anyone else. The other candidates each thought he would eventually go away, so they ignored him and focused on each other. Then one day, they realized that, dang, Trump was winning this thing. So Florida Sen. Marco Rubio nicked him with a few zingers and, reveling in the attention, decided to go straight to the gutter by saying Trump has “small hands.” Trump joined him, or was already there waiting for him.

The other two remaining candidates, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, refrained from discussing body parts. Of the two, Kasich has the more proven record as both a congressman and governor, and he has run a positive, unifying, Reagan-esque campaign, to the point that he alone often refused to join the competition in insulting Democrats.

In Arkansas, he won less than 4 percent of the vote March 1.

Trump, meanwhile, won almost 33 percent of 409,828 votes cast in the Republican primary. He beat Cruz, who had 30.5 percent, by more than 9,000 votes.

How did he do that? An analysis by the consulting firm Turtle Target and by the media outlet Talk Business & Politics found a high percentage of this year’s early voters had participated in only one or none of the last three primaries. Most of the early voters were above the age of 50, and two-thirds voted in the Republican primary.

Something about this election was different enough that it motivated those people to vote. Trump is the most different candidate.

Until Tuesday, it looked like Trump’s act might be wearing thin. After basing his candidacy on being a straight-shooter, he’s been flip-flopping lately, including on immigration, his signature issue. The establishment finally is hitting him hard. But he won Michigan, Mississippi and Hawaii, while Cruz won only Idaho.

Can Trump still lose? Sure. No one can say for certain what will happen next in this crazy primary season, including the pollsters. In a recent speech at the Clinton School of Public Service in Little Rock, pollster Andrew Smith said polling is much harder during the primaries, when voters are choosing between like-minded party candidates, then in the general election, when it’s the Republican versus the Democrat. In primaries, voters wait very late to decide. In New Hampshire this year, 47 percent of Republican primary voters made up their minds in the last three days before the election.

That’s one way you get such wild swings as what happened recently in Michigan, where Kasich went from having 15 percent support in a CBS News/YouGov poll taken March 2-4 to 33 percent support in another poll by American Research Group taken March 4-5. That second poll occurred entirely after that Fox News debate in Detroit when Trump said his “hands” were big enough while bickering the entire night with Rubio and Cruz. Kasich stayed above the fray and was generally considered the night’s winner.

Other polls had Kasich still behind Trump, and on Tuesday, he came in third place in that state, just behind Cruz.

Next are Wyoming and the District of Columbia March 12. Then comes the big day, March 15: Florida, Ohio, Illinois, North Carolina and Missouri. If Rubio and Kasich lose their home states of Florida and Ohio March 15, they’re out. They’ll have lost the only poll that matters, the one in the voting booth, among the people that know them best.

Trump is increasingly looking like the nominee, though I’m not predicting that or anything else this year. Not only is he winning among the Republicans, but on the Democratic side, the Clinton machine can’t put away a 74-year-old socialist who’s not even a Democrat.

Crazy, huh?