Category Archives: Elections

Poll finds Arkansas races tighter than expected

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Sen. Tom Cotton, Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, and Rep. French Hill  are definitely still the favorites to win in November. But the election just got more interesting.

A Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College poll released over the course of this week found that Cotton, a Republican, was trailing Democrat Hallie Shoffner, 47.4% to 44%. Libertarian Jeff Wadlin was running at 3%, while 5.65% of respondents were undecided. 

The poll also found that in the governor’s race, Sanders was leading Democrat state Sen. Fred Love, 45% to 40%, while Libertarian Colt Shelby trailed with 7%. Another 8% were undecided. 

The poll of 1,217 likely voters was conducted Aug. 11-12 via text message and had a plus-minus margin of error of 4.7%. That’s a 9.4% swing, which means Cotton could be leading his race while Love could be ahead of Sanders. 

In a separate survey of 1,112 likely voters in the 2nd District, Rep. Hill was trailing Democrat Chris Jones, 44% to 48%.

The impossible-to-ignore finding was that more respondents disapproved of President Trump than approved, 53%-46%. Perhaps even more significant was the fact that almost half the respondents (48.3%) strongly disapproved. Less than 5% only somewhat disapproved. In contrast, one-third (32.2%) strongly approved.  Continue reading →

Any ideas on how to fix the ballot initiative?

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There almost certainly won’t be any citizen-led initiatives on the November ballot after Secretary of State Cole Jester announced he was disqualifying the one effort that submitted signatures. 

Ironically, the proposed amendment by Protect AR Rights was an attempt to reform the ballot initiative process itself. 

Jester informed Protect AR Rights July 30 that he had disqualified all of the 108,837 signatures it collected. He said he did so because the popular name on each page read “The Ballot Measure Rights Amendment of 2026” instead of the attorney general-approved “The Arkansas Ballot Measure Rights Amendment.”

Let’s pause and provide some background.  Continue reading →

Guns, non-citizen voting on your ballot this year

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Arkansas voters this November will consider three legislatively proposed constitutional amendments, including one explicitly stating that only citizens can vote, and one stating that Arkansans have an individual right to keep and bear arms.

Similar provisions already exist in the state’s Constitution, but these would provide needed clarity, the legislative sponsors have argued.

The Citizens Only Voting Amendment would specify that only qualified citizens can vote in state and local elections. Those qualifications are being a citizen of the United States; being an Arkansas resident; being at least 18 years old; and being lawfully registered to vote in the election. 

It further bars from voting individuals who don’t meet those qualifications. 

The Arkansas Constitution already states “any person” who meets those qualifications may vote in an election. Continue reading →

Former Sam’s Club exec, Libertarian Jeff Wadlin, seeks to replace Cotton

The former head of Sam’s Club’s Membership Department hopes to unseat Republican U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton. Jeff Wadlin, 55, of Bentonville is running as the Libertarian Party nominee.

Hallie Shoffner is the Democratic candidate.

“I think a lot of people are not happy with the direction the country’s going right now,” he said in discussing his third party candidacy. “They’re not happy with the way that working families are getting squeezed, and I feel like I’ve got the right skill set, and I’ve got some time, and I wanted to get involved and give something back.”

The Virginia native brought his family and his product development and consulting firm

to Bentonville in 2011. His previous work had included starting an online salvage auto parts company, working at Capital One’s headquarters, and working for Caterpillar.

Wadlin started consulting for Sam’s Club in 2015 and then started working full-time for the company the next year. He eventually led its Membership Department recruiting and retaining members. He left the company in 2022 and started Wadlin Consulting, which helps companies with membership strategies and marketing.  Continue reading →

Politicians choosing their voters

Which party will control the U.S. House of Representatives after the November elections? It becomes harder to predict each time a state redraws its congressional district map.

As the year began, the conventional wisdom was that Democrats probably would retake the U.S. House majority because the party that doesn’t control the White House typically does better in the midterm elections. Republicans were favored to maintain control of the Senate.

President Trump’s current low approval ratings, along with $4 gas prices, would seem to further improve the Democrats’ chances. Supposedly, Democrats can even win a U.S. Senate seat in Texas, although I’ll believe it when I see it. 

On the other hand, it’s a long way to November, and things can change. 

Furthermore, the redistricting efforts by both parties, with Republicans appearing to benefit more, have scrambled the picture. Continue reading →