Tax-cut-and-spend Congress

Uncle Sam hangs on for webBy Steve Brawner
© 2015 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

Many Republican members of Congress, including all six members of Arkansas’ congressional delegation, have signed the Americans for Tax Reform’s pledge not to raise taxes, and mostly they stick to it. Many Democrats have signed a pledge not to mess with Social Security. But there’s no group asking members of Congress to pledge to reduce the national debt.

Much as I hate all these pledges, maybe there should be.

This past week, Congress rushed through two legislative packages that will make the national debt bigger. One was a package that permanently extended tax breaks that, in fairness, mostly were being routinely extended temporarily before. We’re now assured of adding $700 billion to the national debt over 10 years, whereas before we at least argued about it every year. All four members of Arkansas’ House delegation voted for the deal, which was consistent with the pledge they have signed.

And that wouldn’t be a problem, if Congress had voted to cut spending elsewhere to offset the tax cuts. Just as you and I ought to cut back on spending if we decide to take a job that pays less, Congress ought to cut spending if it cuts taxes.

Instead, Congress also voted this week for a $1.1 trillion omnibus spending package that increases spending by $50 billion. The 2,000-page bill is full of provisions that range from the important (allowing the U.S. to compete in the oil exporting market) to the mundane ($65 million for salmon restoration). It was negotiated by congressional leaders behind closed doors and then presented to the membership with little time for them to read it and nothing else on the table to avert a government shutdown.

To their credit, Arkansas’ senators, Sen. John Boozman and Sen. Tom Cotton, voted against both packages, which were combined in the Senate into one vote. In the House, Rep. Rick Crawford and Rep. Bruce Westerman get credit for voting against the spending package. Meanwhile, I can’t blame the two House members who voted for that package, Rep. French Hill and Rep. Steve Womack. Time was running out, there was no alternative, and many Republicans want to give new Speaker Paul Ryan, who helped broker the deal, a chance to succeed.

Also, the tax deal isn’t that much of a break from past policy. It mostly extended tax breaks permanently that were being extended temporarily year after year. Now at least we have clarity.

The problem is that once again, members of Congress voted to cut taxes, increase spending, and add to the debt because they don’t have enough motivations to behave differently. People often complain about “tax-and-spend liberals.” The truth is that most members of Congress often are “tax-cut-and-spend Republicans and Democrats.” And that’s why the national debt is creeping toward $19 trillion, or $58,000 for every American.

In signing the combined packages into law Friday, President Obama said, “I think the system worked.”

He’s right. The system worked perfectly. It did exactly what it was designed to do: Cut taxes, increase spending, and make the numbers work because the costs will be borne by future generations who don’t yet vote.

This has been going on for almost all of America’s history. According to the U.S. Treasury’s website, the national debt was $71 million in 1790, and then it dipped to less than $34,000 at the beginning of 1835, and it’s been pretty much rising ever since, until recently, when it exploded under your and my watch. It took about 191 years for it to reach $1 trillion and then needed 20 years to reach $6 trillion. Under the last two presidents, it’s grown another $13 trillion. As of Dec. 16, it was $18,796,279,678,290.28.

Two things can change this dynamic.

One is voluntary. Voters can elect fiscally responsible candidates. In office, those lawmakers must place as high a priority on future generations as they do on cutting taxes and increasing spending today. Would signing a pledge to reduce the debt help? It’s helped elsewhere.

More likely, there must be a mechanism, such as a balanced budget amendment, that makes it easier for elected officials to make responsible choices because, if they don’t, they’re breaking or at least skirting the law.

That way the system would work only when it does right by everyone – those who vote, those who don’t, and those who can’t because they’re too young or not yet born.

Next president: one of these four

Hand with ballot and box
By Steve Brawner
© 2015 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

You might think there are 17 candidates still running for president – as of Thursday morning, anyway. There are actually four-and-a-half.

There’s Hillary Clinton, who’s been the Democrats’ 2016 nominee since then-candidate Barack Obama clinched the party’s nomination in 2008. Among Republicans, there’s Donald Trump, Sen. Ted Cruz, and Sen. Marco Rubio.

The next president is probably one of those four. Let’s give half a slot to someone else who might emerge from Iowa and New Hampshire as still a viable candidate.

Who could that be? Former Gov. Jeb Bush’s last name has helped him raise money but hasn’t helped him in the polls. Dr. Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina had their moments but have faded. Gov. John Kasich never caught on. This is not the year for Sen. Rand Paul’s brand of very-small-government Republicanism, if ever there will be one. Gov. Chris Christie appears to be on the upswing, a little.

Former Gov. Mike Huckabee started in the top 10 but has never gained traction. His path to victory – win Iowa and build momentum with support from Christian conservatives – was blocked by Cruz, Carson, Rubio and, surprisingly, Trump.

This week, Huckabee was relegated to the undercard debate for the second time. His spokesperson, Alice Stewart, left the campaign. A traveler snapped a photo published on the Arkansas Times website of him pushing his bag through the Little Rock airport, head down and cane in hand after a recent knee surgery. Behind him was former first lady Janet Huckabee dragging her luggage. No one else was with them.

Little Rock is home to Huckabee’s campaign headquarters, but he lives in Florida now, and of course his focus has been on the Iowa caucus six weeks away. There are many reasons why he could be here in December, but a staff meeting followed by a press conference would not surprise me. His former campaign manager, Ed Rollins, said a candidate must be able to look into the mirror every day and see the next president of the United States. It would be tough for Huckabee to do that now.

That leaves Trump, Cruz and Rubio. Trump is the Republican Party establishment’s worst nightmare because he’s not part of their clique, and because he’s not really a conservative or even a Republican, and because they can’t control him, and because he’s accelerating the party’s descent into what Sen. Lindsey Graham once called a “demographic death spiral.”

What Graham was talking about was the fact that the GOP is too much the party of white people in a country where white people are shrinking as a percentage of the population. According to Gallup, President Obama won 89 percent of nonwhite voters in 2012 and 90 percent in 2008. John Kerry won 83 percent in 2004. As pointed out on fivethirtyeight.com, President Reagan won 56 percent of white voters in 1980 and won 44 states, while Mitt Romney won 59 percent of white voters in 2012 but lost the election. That’s because nonwhite voters have increased from 12 percent of the electorate to 28 percent and will keep rising.

Trump’s sweeping comments about Mexican rapists and shutting the door on all overseas Muslims play well with many voters but don’t help the GOP with its demographic problem. There’s also his comments about women, a majority of the electorate that voted for Obama by 14 points in 2012, Gallup says. If Trump wins the nomination, he’ll be running against a very tough woman. That should be interesting.

Republicans – who, let’s remember, control the House and Senate and occupy 31 governors’ seats – have other problems in presidential elections. Democrats have won four of the last six elections and the popular vote in five of them. Electoral College math elected George W. Bush president in 2000, but now it favors Democrats. Eighteen states and the District of Columbia have voted for the Democrat in six straight elections, giving them 242 reliable votes, just 28 short of victory. Republicans have won 13 states with 102 votes six straight times, as shown by Politifact.

Other states are reliably red, but Republicans still must win most of the purple states. It’s hard to see that happening with Cruz, who sees and speaks about the world in black and white (and blue and red).

That leaves Rubio, who is quickly becoming the establishment’s choice. So was Jeb Bush.

Arkansas heads to front of coding class

By Steve Brawner
© 2015 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

During the 2014 campaign, when Gov. Asa Hutchinson’s main talking point on education was teaching computer coding in schools, I thought he was playing it small.

He did have a great commercial with his granddaughter. But the big, controversial issues in education are school funding, the Common Core, testing, charter schools – not whether or not students should take a computer class.

Sometimes, small is big. As a result of legislation passed earlier this year, all public high schools in Arkansas are required to offer a computer coding class. This semester, almost 4,000 students are learning to “speak the language of the computer in order to tell the computer what to do,” as Hutchinson described to school board members Dec. 11. Arkansas students have been participating in more than 850 “Hour of Code” events, including one at the Governor’s Mansion last week, where they play around on a computer to get a feel for coding. Bentonville Superintendent Mike Poore told Hutchinson at that school board conference that one of his students, ranked 800th in a class of 1,000 academically, has learned eight computer languages this semester and will have a $50,000-a-year job waiting on him when he graduates – high school, not college.

Arkansas is the first state to require high schools to offer a coding class, and some have noticed. The influential “Wired” magazine ran an online story headlined, “So, Arkansas is leading the learn to code movement.” Hutchinson – who can’t personally code himself out of a paper bag – appeared on CNBC this summer to talk about the program.

The legislation applies only to high schools. On Dec. 4, Hutchinson announced that the Department of Education is developing computer education standards for grades K-8. Those standards would go into effect in the 2017-18 school year. Again, Arkansas would be the first state to do this.

The result of all this could be that Arkansas produces the next Bill Gates. Even if not, then at least a lot of students will be prepared for those well-paying jobs. Some no doubt will take advantage of opportunities offered elsewhere. But as Hutchinson explained Dec. 4, he noticed when visiting Silicon Valley in California, the nation’s tech industry home, the sky-high benefits companies were offering in order to attract talent. Companies will realize their costs will be lower here, leading Arkansas to become a “microhub” for the tech industry.

Even if students don’t go into coding, they’ll have a better understanding of an integral part of American life. Just as a law degree can be useful even if you don’t become a lawyer, coding skills can be useful elsewhere. If you own or manage a business, you may not code – but you’ll likely hire or contract with someone who does.

One more benefit to coding is what it does for the students while they are still in school. A generation of students raised to use computers – or often, just play with them and passively be entertained by them – is instead learning to actively program them. When you and I were in school, the end result of most learning was to answer a test question correctly. For a student in a coding class, the end result is taking charge of a computer and making it do something new. How cool is that?

Challenges? One is getting female students involved. Anthony Owen, Department of Education coordinator of computer science, said current enrollment in computer coding courses is about 74 percent male. The event at the Governor’s Mansion was targeted to girls.

The big challenge has been finding teachers, because few of them know how to code. In many high schools, students are learning the skill through the state’s online Arkansas Virtual Academy while an untrained teacher facilitator in the classroom offers whatever help they can. Kids can learn this way, but it would be better for a local classroom teacher to lead the class. The state has provided $5 million in grants for teachers to be trained in the skill. The faster that money is spent, the better.

Might some of those teachers use that training to leave the profession and become coders themselves? Probably, but every industry deals with that issue. As young thinker Max Farrell once told me, “The CEO says, ‘Why are we training all these people if they ultimately wind up leaving?’ And the vice president says to the CEO, ‘Well, what if we don’t train them and they stay?’”

Same applies to students, doesn’t it?

Reforming health care – next week

By Steve Brawner
© 2015 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

Next week – Dec. 15-17, to be precise – a legislative task force will try to reform health care in Arkansas while deciding what to do about the state’s most contentious issue in years. That’s all.

Here’s the background. After the passage of Obamacare and then a U.S. Supreme Court decision on the matter, states could choose whether or not to expand Medicaid, which provides health care to poor Americans and others. Blue states said yes to the expansion. Most red states like Arkansas said no.

Arkansas said, “Yes, but …” Instead of expanding Medicaid, it would use that money to buy private insurance for Arkansans with incomes up to 138 percent of the federal poverty level.

The program has insured 250,000 Arkansans at its height. In fact, Arkansas has led the nation in reducing its uninsured population. Several states have followed its lead and adopted or considered their own versions. However, some legislators are opposed because the state is scheduled to begin paying part of the cost in 2017, and because this is Obamacare, and because it contributes to the national debt.

The private option barely passed in 2013 and barely was reauthorized in 2014. Because money is being spent, passage requires a three-fourths majority, which means nine senators can block it.

Instead of having yet another political battle this year, Gov. Asa Hutchinson asked legislators to fund it through 2016 and, in the meantime, reform it along with the overall Medicaid program. To accomplish that task, a Health Reform Legislative Task Force has been meeting this year and will make its report by the end of this month. Their big meeting is scheduled for Dec. 15-17. Then there will be a special session next year where the full Legislature will vote.

The task force was composed of about half private option supporters and half opponents. It hired a national consultant, The Stephen Group, that offered suggestions for changes but certainly didn’t advocate scrapping it.

Hutchinson has offered his own reforms, similar to The Stephen Group’s, that he’s calling “Arkansas Works.” Speaking to a health care group this week, he insisted the private option would end on Dec. 31, 2016. But while Arkansas Works clearly changes the private option, it’s not radically different. The government still would pay for poor people’s private health insurance.

The changes instead would make it less of a welfare program. Beneficiaries who work would be required to be insured through their employer when available rather than through the private option, with the state chipping in to help with costs. Those who don’t work would be required to obtain work training. Recipients earning at least 100 percent of the federal poverty level – and maybe some making less – would be required to pay part of the costs for what is now free health care. Those who don’t pay would lose their health insurance and be locked out of the system for a period of time. Hutchinson also floated the idea of a lifetime cap, meaning a person can’t stay on the private option forever.

Hutchinson said the program must cut costs, explaining, “We have to have the savings if we’re going to do what I believe is our responsibility, and that is to cover that expanded population.”

Note that Hutchinson said covering those people “is our responsibility.” It’s been clear since his 2014 campaign that while he might want to change the private option, he doesn’t favor replacing it with nothing.

Nor do that many legislators. There are some, but even many of those who originally opposed it now would keep something in its place. Otherwise, many Arkansans would lose their health insurance and go back to waiting until they are really sick and then accessing the health care system without insurance – and their local doctors and hospitals would eat the cost. If that happens, hospitals will close. It’s happened in other states.

Actually, the private option isn’t the biggest controversy now. The big debate is about whether the state should adopt a managed care model where parts of the Medicaid system would be run by a private company and not the state. Supporters say it would create efficiencies. Opponents say managed care companies will take taxpayer dollars and skimp on care and on payments to providers. Several Republican legislators – generally they work in health care somehow – are among the opponents.

That debate is worth more space, but I only have 750 words to talk about health care. The task force, meanwhile, has one more week to reform it.

Adoptions turn blue balloons red

By Steve Brawner
© 2015 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

After Andrew Rodgers Jr. was adopted, he changed not only his last name but also his first.

The 15-year-old had grown up as “Marcus,” but that name was part of a childhood that saw him placed in foster care and moved from home to home. Separated from his three siblings, hope seemed in short supply. After he and two of his siblings were adopted by Andrew and Sabrina Rodgers of Maumelle, he decided to change his name.

“I was excited to be named after my father,” he said.

That father, Andrew Rodgers Sr., grew up in a Mississippi home with 23 brothers and sisters. Before 2011, he and Sabrina had no children. Now they have six, all adopted, including Andrew Jr. and two of his siblings.

The family was featured in a ceremony at the Pulaski County Juvenile Court building Nov. 19 marking National Adoption Day, which was two days later. With his children by his side, the elder Rodgers described what he called “an amazing journey.”

“It has been a time where we must commit, a time when we must be patient with each other, a time when we become the student, and we let the children be the teacher,” he said. “They teach us how to love. They teach us how to understand. They teach us how to prepare ourselves for a life-changing event, which is simply being called Mama and Daddy.”

The Department of Human Services’ Division of Children and Family Services finalized 711 adoptions last year. This year, the focus is on older children, the theme being, “We never outgrow the need for family.” Of the 600 Arkansas children who are legally free to be adopted, 39 percent are above age 10, and more than half of those are at least 14. The average length of stay in foster care for those children ages 10-up is 4.6 years, and their chances of adoption fall each day until they age out of the system. As DCFS Director Cecile Blucker explained, 204 children reached age 18 in fiscal year 2015. Of those, 128 chose to leave the system; the rest stayed to take advantage of state transitional services offered up to age 21.

Two-thirds of foster children will move seven or more times while in the system, according to the Annie E. Casey Foundation. Many who age out enter adulthood lacking a permanent support system. They don’t have a permanent family to guide them through high school and their late teenage years. They don’t have a parent who understands their abilities and who shares their hopes and dreams. No one is there to help them file their tax return, or point them to a trusted car salesman, or warn them if they are headed in the wrong direction, or provide a home if things don’t work out at first. And so, within four years of aging out, 25 percent have been homeless, less than half have graduated high school, 80 percent can’t support themselves and yet 42 percent have become parents. Adults who have been in foster care suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder at double the rate of combat veterans.

There are organizations in Arkansas that provide that needed support for a small number of these young people, including central Arkansas-based Immerse Arkansas (www.immersearkansas.org) and Northwest Arkansas-based Saving Grace (www.savinggracenwa.org).

Their leaders would agree that the better alternative is for their services never to be needed. Working to put Immerse Arkansas and Saving Grace out of business by finding adoptive homes for foster children are The CALL (thecallinarkansas.org), Project Zero (http://theprojectzero.org), and the state’s Department of Human Services, whose Arkansas Heart Gallery features photos of children waiting to be adopted at dhs.arkansas.gov/dcfs/heartgallery.

Were it not for Andrew Rodgers Sr., then Andrew Rodgers Jr. might have ended up as part of the problem. Instead, he plans to be part of the solution. Someday, he said, he’ll “most definitely” be an adoptive parent himself.

Balloons were released into the sky at the event Nov. 19 – red to signify those like Andrew who have been adopted, and blue signifying those waiting for that opportunity. The balloons were different colors, but they had this in common: They flew away.

So do young people. The question is, how many of them will have a home to come back to?