Where your vote really counts this year

Hand with ballot and boxBy Steve Brawner
© 2016 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

This year’s big races in Arkansas were decided long ago, when incumbents decided to run for re-election and when candidates decided which letter – “R,” “D” or something else – would be beside their name. Statewide, the “Rs” have it.

So even though you’re probably focusing most of your attention on the presidential race, your votes will count the most in local races and in the four ballot initiatives remaining on the ballot.

Those initiatives are where America stops being a republic governed by elected leaders and instead becomes a direct democracy – where you, Mr. and Mrs. Responsible Citizen, decide the law of the land.

Issue 1 is a constitutional amendment extending the terms of nine county officials – county judge, sheriff, etc., but not justice of the peace – from two years to four years. Secondarily, it would prevent county officers from being appointed or elected to another civil or elected office (school board, for example) while serving their terms; take their names off the ballot if they don’t have an opponent; and define the previously undefined “infamous crime” that warrants their removal from office.

Passage of the amendment would give elected officials more time to settle into their offices and govern instead of having to return to the campaign trail so soon after being elected. If you think that’s a good thing, vote yes. If not, vote no.

Issue 2 would allow the governor to maintain his or her powers when leaving the state. Under the Constitution, if Gov. Asa Hutchinson drives into Memphis or crosses the border separating Texarkana, Ark., and Texarkana, Tex., Lt. Gov. Tim Griffin becomes not just the acting governor but the actual governor. If Griffin is also out of state, then the Senate president pro tempore, Sen. Jonathan Dismang, R-Searcy, becomes the actual governor. Issue 2 would end that practice.

The pros? Governors travel a lot for legitimate reasons. Hutchinson, in fact, is in China this week meeting with business leaders he hopes will invest in Arkansas, and with government officials to promote Arkansas agriculture exports. In the past, replacement governors have taken advantage of their moment in the sun to sign a bill the governor didn’t like, or let people out of jail, or temporarily fire the governor’s chief of staff. On the con side, if the governor is out of state during an emergency – as occurred on Sept. 11, 2001 – current law ensures Arkansas still has a governor at home.

Issue 3 would allow the state to issue bonds for economic development projects in unlimited amounts. Currently, those bonds must equal no more than 5 percent of state general revenues. That provision would let the state go into more debt in order to attract a really big employer, such as an auto plant. The amendment also would allow cities and counties to provide economic development money to private entities, such as the local Chamber of Commerce. It also would let cities and counties sell bonds to private individuals rather than through a public sale.

Why vote yes? Because Arkansas is still a poor state, and it competes with other states that also use taxpayer funds to attract employers and spur economic development. Vote no if you’re concerned about how those funds are used, who benefits, and how much debt the state would incur.

The other initiative has attracted the most attention. Issue 6 is the Arkansas Medical Marijuana Amendment, which would legalize medical marijuana through a constitutional amendment. It would allow marijuana to be distributed through for-profit dispensaries and lists medical conditions that would qualify.

If you want more information, the Cooperative Extension Service has an excellent, unbiased voter guide at its website, www.uaex.edu. I used it for this column.

Tax cuts: some legislators cautious, others enthusiastic

By Steve Brawner
© 2016 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

The easiest things for lawmakers to do politically are to cut taxes and increase spending, but there comes a point where the math stops working (except in Washington, D.C, where they can just pretend). Some state legislators are wondering if we’re reaching that point.

The reason they are wondering is because state revenues have not met the Department of Finance and Administration’s forecast each of the past three months. In fact, they’re $36.1 million less than expected and about the same as the state collected this time last year.

Meanwhile, the state is facing increasing costs that are hard to contain. Spending on K-12 public schools must increase every year or the state probably will be sued. Meanwhile, health care costs are rising – in particular, the so-called private option, where the state uses federal Medicaid dollars to purchase health insurance for lower-income Arkansans. When the program was created, it was expected to cover 250,000 individuals, but the numbers have zoomed past that, and next year the state begins paying 5 percent of the cost.

The situation wasn’t vastly different – at least the same trends existed or were predictable – in 2015, when Gov. Asa Hutchinson first came to office after having campaigned on a promise of cutting taxes. Hutchinson made a $100 million income tax cut his first priority, and legislators passed it right out of the gate early that year and then made spending decisions based off that.

It worked just fine. In fact, the state had a $177 million surplus in fiscal year 2016. But that surplus would not have happened were it not for two factors.

First, the economy is strong. The state’s unemployment rate is 3.9 percent, the lowest in recorded history, though part of the reason is because many individuals have dropped out of the workforce and aren’t counted in the rate.

The second reason for the surplus is that the state is taking a lot of money from Uncle Sam. The private option will rake in $1.6 billion in fiscal year 2017. Many Republican states said no to that money. Then earlier this year, Hutchinson and legislators found about $50 million in state funds so Arkansas would be eligible for $200 million in federal highway funds.

So balancing the budget actually has been pretty easy lately. The problem is that the factors that make it easy are temporary, but the factors that make it harder are permanent. The Great Recession supposedly ended in June 2009, which is news to a lot of people still struggling to make ends meet, but that’s the official date. That was seven years ago, and unless the laws of economics have been rescinded, another recession eventually will come around the corner. At that point, the state will have a lot of obligations that it might not be able to meet, especially as those education and health care costs continue rising. Meanwhile, at some point, the cash-strapped federal government will stop handing out money to the states like candy. Surely.

Hutchinson is determined to cut taxes. The governor’s duties include being the state’s chief marketing officer and deal-maker. He’s told by out-of-state corporate leaders that Arkansas’ high income taxes are a negative. But even he is scaling down expectations. He’s now talking about $50 million, which is not much.

Other legislators are even more cautious. Sen. Jake Files, R-Fort Smith, chairman of the Senate Revenue and Tax Committee, said any tax cut this year will occur after “more fact-finding and evidence-based methodology” than in 2015. He suggested a triggered tax cut that would occur only if revenues meet a certain mark. He’d also like to see the tax cuts targeted to lower income Arkansans, who were left out of the 2015 cut.

Other legislators, however, including Sen. Bart Hester, R-Cave Springs, are full steam ahead. He says the state has a surplus and that if the money stays in Little Rock, legislators will just spend it, and not efficiently. He’s pretty certain legislators will become more enthusiastic about a tax cut when they have the chance to pass one.

What would be the safe bet? There will be a tax cut – a small one, passed with cautious enthusiasm.

State Republican leaders stumped by Trump

By Steve Brawner
© 2016 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

I tried to write about something besides the presidential campaign, and just can’t. I apologize. I’ve covered other things this past week but can’t look away from this train wreck, even when I want to.

Arkansas’ top Republican elected officials probably feel the same way.

After Donald Trump’s 2005 recordings were made public, a number of them made their strongest statements yet against the candidate whom none of them wanted to be the nominee. But so far, they have not joined others across the country who withdrew their support, including both senators from the states of Alaska, Nebraska and Arizona, including Sen. John McCain. Speaker of the House Paul Ryan has all but disowned Trump.

Well, Rep. Bruce Westerman did say after the recordings that he would support letting the party’s vice presidential nominee, Gov. Mike Pence, take the top spot. However, on Monday, he told reporters that Trump did OK in Sunday’s debate and still has his support.

Sen. Tom Cotton made a strong statement while in the middle of a four-day trip to Iowa, where his appearances included the main address at the big-deal Reagan Dinner in Des Moines. Yes, that’s the same Iowa that hosts the nation’s first presidential caucus three-and-a-half years from now, so Cotton may be spending a lot more time there soon. According to his prepared remarks, Cotton said Trump had to ask for forgiveness in the debate and make the case that he was better than Hillary Clinton. If not, he should step aside. After the debate, Cotton said Trump had successfully made that case, but it’s a safe bet he won’t be walking door to door on Trump’s behalf. He’s got other doors to knock.

Sen. John Boozman released a statement saying that if anyone ever spoke about his wife, daughters or granddaughters the way Trump had spoken about women in that video, “they would be shopping for a new set of teeth.” He deplored the state of the campaign but did not rescind his previous support of Trump.

Gov. Asa Hutchinson said Trump’s conduct in 2005 was “reprehensible and cannot be justified” but he said the election should be about national security, the economy and the Supreme Court. Asked if still supports Trump, Hutchinson said his statement stood as it was, which means yes.

The rest of Arkansas’ Republican leadership released similar statements condemning Trump’s remarks but not calling for him to leave the race. Those included Rep. Rick Crawford, Rep. French Hill, Rep. Steve Womack, Lt. Gov. Tim Griffin and Attorney General Leslie Rutledge, who had begun making national TV appearances on Trump’s behalf before the recordings were released.

The highest profile state Republican to call on Trump to withdraw was the Speaker of the Arkansas House of Representatives, Jeremy Gillam, who said in a statement, ”Although I have not been a supporter of Mr. Trump in the past, I have remained hopeful that he would give me a reason to vote for my party’s nominee. I no longer have that hope. I believe he should withdraw from the race immediately.”

Gillam is a huge “Star Wars” fan, which may not be a coincidence. The saga’s most important characters are imperfect individuals who overcome their personal flaws and eventually triumph in a galactic confrontation of good versus evil. Even the villain, Darth Vader, becomes the hero in the end. But some characters never redeem themselves and never earn the audience’s support.

This presidential election has been a tough one for many in the state party’s leadership. None of them endorsed Trump initially. Most first supported Gov. Mike Huckabee, who never had any traction, and then many transferred their support to Sen. Marco Rubio, who was steamrolled by the Trump juggernaut. Trump’s lifestyle, personality, and personal history aren’t good fits for them, nor are his policies. He’s not really a conservative, and they are.

But they made the rational calculation that Trump was their party’s nominee, he’s better than the alternative, and he has the support of a lot of Republican primary voters. He will win Arkansas in November, big.

It looks like he will lose the election, though. If that happens, Republican elected officials will try to return to the days of nominating candidates they can fully support, like Cotton or Pence or Ryan. We’ll see if Republican primary voters will let them.

Related: Trump played checkers and they played chess – in a checkers year.

A husband first, and then a candidate

Frank Gilbert

Frank Gilbert

By Steve Brawner
© 2016 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

Frank Gilbert looked kind of sheepish last Friday when I asked for his new phone number and instead he gave me his old one. I told him that when I had tried to call that one earlier, the recording had said it had been disconnected.

“The truth is, I let it lapse for a few days,” he said to the best of my recollection. “Teresa always took care of the bills.”

Frank is the jovial Libertarian candidate for U.S. Senate and the former mayor of Tull. Teresa, until Aug. 15, was his wife of 45 years.

The two were not exactly the classic political power couple. She registered to vote only once – in the 1990s in order to vote for him – and then de-registered after she was called for jury duty. As a Libertarian, Frank believes in as little government as possible. Teresa was socially conservative and not afraid of government enforcing traditional behavior. She called politics Frank’s “expensive hobby.”

Yeah, there were arguments in the early years, and then they put those aside. They were too busy raising three sons and later having four grandchildren, who called her “Moomaw,” to let politics get in the way.

“You know, it’s one of those things that you figure out it’s not going to change, and it’s so unimportant in the scope of what you’re doing as a family that it became a running joke,” he said.

One other thing about Teresa was she was kind of stubborn about going to the doctor, right up until June 5 when the pain in her stomach became so unbearable that she let Frank drive her to the hospital. A CT scan at 10 p.m. that night revealed she had a golf ball-sized mass at the base of her pancreas that had metastasized to 20-30 spots on her liver. The doctor didn’t offer a prognosis, but they understood.

“Of course we all Googled it, and when you Google pancreatic cancer, you know you’re praying for a miracle,” he said.

After further tests, Frank and Teresa were told she had six months to two years to live. She actually had 10 weeks. During that time, Frank dropped off the campaign trail. About a week after she died, he was back at work at the Bauxite School District, where he’s an in-school suspension officer, and he restarted his campaign.

“That week in between made me understand that I needed some normalcy. … I’ve heard people talk about compartmentalizing, and I can’t do it,” he said. “She’s on my mind all the time.”

He and the Democratic candidate for Senate, Conner Eldridge, have debated twice. On Tuesday, Frank will take off work to participate in a third debate that will be televised that night on AETN – the only one that will include the incumbent, Republican Sen. John Boozman.

At one time, Frank was actually a Republican himself – the party’s second vice chairman. But he does not fit into that party, and he’s not a Democrat.

“The difference I saw when Republicans started winning elections was that we ran those Democrat Hogs away from the public trough and ran those Republican Hogs up there to replace them,” he said.

At the AETN debate, he’ll argue positions from a Libertarian perspective that wouldn’t always be an easy sale with voters. Because he believes in limited government, he favors privatizing Social Security and Medicare some time in the long-term future. He’d fight no drug war and very few overseas ones. In a debate with Eldridge, he asked how Americans would feel if their child were killed in a drone strike and said the United States had engaged in imperialism, adding, “When you sow the wind, you reap the whirlwind.”

Running for governor in 2014, Frank won less than 2 percent of the vote. He knows the best he can hope for is 3-5 percent this year. He’s running because he believes in the cause and because he’s hopeful Libertarians may have an impact on state and national politics in his grandchildren’s day.

So he’s either Abraham Lincoln helping start a movement, or he’s Don Quixote tilting at windmills. Still, he doesn’t plan to quit running for office.

“I may grab my heart and go see Teresa, but until that happened it’s physically impossible,” he said. “I enjoy it enough that I’ll keep doing it and hopefully not spend quite as much money in the future.”

Related: Libertarians, Greens better choice than death.

School work to be finished early

Bruce Cozart is chairman of the House Education Committee.

Bruce Cozart is chairman of the House Education Committee.

By Steve Brawner
© 2016 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

The Arkansas Legislature goes into session in January, but some of the most important decisions will be completed this month, without much debate.

That’s because, by Nov. 1, the House and Senate Education Committees will complete the state’s adequacy report, the biennial (once every two years) document that governs how and how much (always more) the state spends on K-12 public education.

The adequacy report was created in the wake of the Lake View case, a lawsuit brought on by a poor, rural school district in the Delta. A series of court decisions said the state wasn’t spending enough on education and wasn’t spending it in the right places – including on students like those in Lake View. In response, Arkansas consolidated schools (Lake View ended up being one) and poured money into education at a time when other states were cutting spending.

Fear of returning to court has governed Arkansas policymakers ever since. No matter what the economic or budgetary situation has been, schools are funded first, and they always get a raise.

There was a time when the money spigot was wide open, but now it’s closed to a small stream. Basically, schools get a cost of living adjustment every year now. The chairman of the House Education Committee, Rep. Bruce Cozart, R-Hot Springs, figured out a raise of 1.15 percent this past weekend and challenged members to create their own figures.

That’s probably about what will end up happening. The committees will finish their work and present the adequacy report to Gov. Asa Hutchinson by Nov. 1. His administration will tweak it, it will be presented to the Legislature, and the Legislature will pass it without much debate. Any dissenting legislators will be cut off by two words: Lake View.

That’s roughly 41.5 percent of your general revenue budget right there – general revenues being the state spending over which legislators have the most control. The general revenue budget this past year was $5.3 billion, and of that, $2.2 billion went to the public school fund.

There will be arguments over smaller parts of the education budget, including funding for school transportation. Current funding is based on the number of students school districts have, not the number of route miles their buses travel, so some compact districts pocket extra money that they use for other purposes, while far-flung districts lose money driving all over the county. There’s been talk for years about basing funding on route miles, which seems obvious, but that would mean some districts would win and some would lose. When that happens, expect a fight to occur.

Education advocates will say a 1 percent raise isn’t enough, but they’d better be glad they’re getting it. The state does have other priorities – colleges and universities, human services, highways, prisons – that must fight for what’s left after schools, and advocates would say it hasn’t been enough.

A case can be made that the Lake View case set the stage for Arkansas being one of the few Republican-leaning states to expand Medicaid through Obamacare to create the controversial private option, which purchases private health insurance for lower-income Arkansans. The state was primed to take the money partly because it can’t cut funding for schools.

But starting next year, the private option, which has been funded almost entirely using federal dollars, will start to nibble at the state budget. The state will be responsible for 5 percent of the cost in 2017 and 10 percent by 2020. Meanwhile, the number of Arkansans receiving benefits has soared past the expected 250,000 and continues to rise.

That’s kind of scary. Schools will still get a raise, but everyone’s looking at rising health care costs. Meanwhile, highway advocates are begging for money that’s just not available. The state is trying to figure out how to slow the growth of prison costs without making crime worse. And amidst all that, the governor says he wants to cut taxes again.

How do you make the numbers work? The state’s economy must continue to grow, which it is doing to the tune of a 3.9% unemployment rate. And the state will continue to take federal dollars wherever it can, including for highways and health care.

There will be a big debate about that – taking money for health care. Legislators will have time because 41.5 percent of the budget will already be settled. Nothing starts an argument like the word “Obamacare.” Nothing shuts it down like the words “Lake View.”