Category Archives: Politics

What can 2004 tell us about 2020?

By Steve Brawner, © 2019 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

The country had a first-term Republican president elected after losing the popular vote whom Democrats desperately wanted to defeat. The party’s early frontrunner was the party’s previous choice for vice president. A fiery liberal insurgent gained support even as there were questions about electability. Ultimately, Democrats chose the candidate they thought gave them the best chance to win in November.

That paragraph describes the 2020 campaign up until the last sentence, which still remains to be written this year. But it also describes the last time Democrats were trying to unseat a first-term Republican president in 2004.

Can that election provide a roadmap for 2020? It’s worth a quick study. Continue reading →

What we know, expect, and can only guess in 2020

By Steve Brawner, © 2020 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

As 2019 fades into 2020, some things in politics we know, some things we can expect, and some things we can only guess.

First, here’s what we know: President Trump has been impeached. Here’s what we can expect: The Senate will certainly acquit him (whenever the House finally presents the case), with Arkansas Sens. Tom Cotton and John Boozman voting alongside their Republican colleagues in support of the president. We also can expect an extremely interesting greeting, or lack of one, between Trump and Speaker Nancy Pelosi when Trump arrives to give the State of the Union address Feb. 4.

But here’s what we can only guess: the difference it will make in the 2020 elections. Will a majority of swing voters decide impeachment was an overreach and punish Democrats? Or will it increase their desire to remove Trump the old-fashioned way, at the ballot box? Or will impeachment even matter by next November? Continue reading →

Not for Trump, but here’s where he’s right

By Steve Brawner, © 2019 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

Let’s start with some transparency: In 2016, I voted enthusiastically for Ohio Gov. John Kasich in the Republican presidential primary and then voted for Evan McMullin in the general election because he was the best alternative to Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. I don’t want President Trump to be re-elected (but also don’t support impeachment) and am hoping a credible third party candidate emerges before next November.

I said “hoping,” not “holding my breath.”

But not being a Trump supporter shouldn’t blind anyone to ways his presidency has benefitted America, particularly this: He has challenged some assumptions about trade that needed to be challenged.

For decades, the consensus among political elites has been that trade is a good thing, and it has been. It has lifted millions worldwide from poverty, reduced the chance for conflict with rivals, and introduced free markets and the concept of freedom to autocratic countries such as China. As bad as China is, it was far worse decades ago, and in the Korean War Americans and Chinese were killing each other. Meanwhile, free trade has lowered prices for American consumers. The shirt I might buy today costs about what one did when I graduated high school in 1987. Continue reading →

America in One Room

By Steve Brawner, © 2019 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

What happens when more than 500 diverse Americans are brought together to discuss politics in an informed, civil manner? People can actually change their minds about the issues, each other, and the American political system.

That’s what Stanford professor James Fishkin found through his project, “America in One Room.” He scientifically chose 500-plus Americans – five from Arkansas – to reflect America’s vast array of political viewpoints. They were flown to Dallas and spent Sept. 19-22 learning about and discussing five important issues: immigration, health care, the economy and taxes, the environment, and foreign policy.

He discussed his findings in a conference call Nov. 14 organized by Fix US. That’s a project by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget meant to bridge the distrust that makes solving problems like the national debt impossible.

Fishkin believes traditional polling techniques don’t offer valuable information. Most citizens don’t have an incentive to be very informed about particular issues. They’re busy with their responsibilities and only have one vote anyway out of millions, so they form only a “vague impression from sound bytes and headlines,” he said. When a pollster interrupts their dinner and starts asking questions, they offer “phantom opinions” rather than admit they don’t know the answer. Continue reading →

The 2020 vote: Later would be better than earlier

By Steve Brawner, © 2019 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

Candidates in Arkansas filed for office last month, a year before the November 2020 elections, because state lawmakers moved the Republican and Democratic primaries to March 3 so the state would vote earlier and be more relevant in the presidential race.

They should have picked a later date. Being late might have made Arkansas more relevant than being early – and more importantly, being early means we’ll have fewer choices elsewhere on the ballot.

Lawmakers voted this year to move Arkansas’ primaries to March in presidential election years while keeping them in May in other years.

The logic makes sense. Because of the move, the state will be closer to the front of the line after only Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. Candidates theoretically will pay more attention to it, and Arkansans will vote while the race is still competitive.

Unfortunately, 13 other states were thinking the same thing and also will vote March 3. Almost all of them are bigger than Arkansas and some are much bigger, including California and Texas. So don’t expect any candidates to make anything more than a brief stop here. Continue reading →