By Steve Brawner
© 2020 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

There’s a saying: Don’t make the perfect the enemy of the good. Here’s a new one: Don’t make the good the enemy of the better. The Electoral College definitely could be better.

The Electoral College has served us reasonably well for two-and-a-half centuries, but its flaws are being exposed. Thanks largely to its winner-take-all system, the loser of the popular vote has won two of the past five elections. The country’s deepening red-blue division means only a few swing states are in play, allowing candidates to ignore the rest – including Arkansas. Unless you live in one of those swing states, your vote really doesn’t affect the outcome.

This election, like recent ones, will be decided in those swing states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. If 39,000 voters in those three states had voted for Hillary Clinton instead of President Trump, an entirely different set of people on my Facebook feed would be mad all the time. Clinton lost despite having 2.9 million more votes nationwide. Meanwhile, the 2000 election was decided by 537 votes in Florida.

So guess where the candidates will be focusing their attention? Not blood red Arkansas. The Democratic candidate will ignore us, and Trump can take us for granted.

Supporters of the Electoral College say it helps small states like Arkansas, but that’s not necessarily true. Because of its winner-take-all system, it potentially gives outsized influence to big states. A candidate can win the 270 needed Electoral College votes by winning the 12 biggest states by one vote each and not even be on the ballot in the other 38. Continue reading →

By Steve Brawner, © 2020 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

As 2019 fades into 2020, some things in politics we know, some things we can expect, and some things we can only guess.

First, here’s what we know: President Trump has been impeached. Here’s what we can expect: The Senate will certainly acquit him (whenever the House finally presents the case), with Arkansas Sens. Tom Cotton and John Boozman voting alongside their Republican colleagues in support of the president. We also can expect an extremely interesting greeting, or lack of one, between Trump and Speaker Nancy Pelosi when Trump arrives to give the State of the Union address Feb. 4.

But here’s what we can only guess: the difference it will make in the 2020 elections. Will a majority of swing voters decide impeachment was an overreach and punish Democrats? Or will it increase their desire to remove Trump the old-fashioned way, at the ballot box? Or will impeachment even matter by next November? Continue reading →

By Steve Brawner, © 2019 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

What happens when more than 500 diverse Americans are brought together to discuss politics in an informed, civil manner? People can actually change their minds about the issues, each other, and the American political system.

That’s what Stanford professor James Fishkin found through his project, “America in One Room.” He scientifically chose 500-plus Americans – five from Arkansas – to reflect America’s vast array of political viewpoints. They were flown to Dallas and spent Sept. 19-22 learning about and discussing five important issues: immigration, health care, the economy and taxes, the environment, and foreign policy.

He discussed his findings in a conference call Nov. 14 organized by Fix US. That’s a project by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget meant to bridge the distrust that makes solving problems like the national debt impossible.

Fishkin believes traditional polling techniques don’t offer valuable information. Most citizens don’t have an incentive to be very informed about particular issues. They’re busy with their responsibilities and only have one vote anyway out of millions, so they form only a “vague impression from sound bytes and headlines,” he said. When a pollster interrupts their dinner and starts asking questions, they offer “phantom opinions” rather than admit they don’t know the answer. Continue reading →