Category Archives: Elections

Bloomberg winning Arkansas, as of last week

Elections

Feb. 13, 2020

By Steve Brawner
© 2020 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg placed first in a poll of likely Democratic primary voters in Arkansas conducted Feb 6-7, but much can change before the votes are counted here March 3.

The Talk Business & Politics/Hendrix College poll found Bloomberg leading with 19.6% support, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden with 18.5%, Sen. Bernie Sanders with 16.4%, and Mayor Pete Buttigieg with 15.5%. Sen. Elizabeth Warren was fifth with 8.9%, while Sen. Amy Klobuchar was sixth with 4.8%. Andrew Yang had 2% support, but he has since dropped out of the race. Another 3.3% said they would vote for “someone else,” while 11% were undecided.

The poll had a margin of error of plus-minus 4.3%, which would encompass any of the top four candidates and would leave Warren not far behind.

Polls provide a snapshot of the campaign when they are taken, but they cannot predict the future. Continue reading Bloomberg winning Arkansas, as of last week →

Webb-Gorsuch vs. Welch-Roberts

Elections

By Steve Brawner
© 2020 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

Feb. 11, 2020

The Arkansas Supreme Court justice race is the only one that will be on every voter’s ballot March 3. The candidates can’t tell voters how they would rule on specific issues because they’re supposed to judge each case on the merits. But they can send signals, if the right question is asked.

Judge Morgan “Chip” Welch and Workers’ Compensation Commission Chief Law Judge Barbara Webb spoke at the Arkansas Bar Association’s midyear meeting Feb. 6. They are competing for the seat held by the retiring Justice Josephine Hart.

When they talked to reporters afterwards, they were asked to name the U.S. Supreme Court justice with whom they most align. The question originally had been asked by the Family Council for its Voters Guide.

The Family Council had asked only about current justices. Welch named Chief Justice John Roberts, a President George W. Bush nominee who has emerged as the Court’s moderate and swing vote. Welch noted that Roberts, last seen presiding over President Trump’s Senate impeachment trial, has described himself as an umpire whose job is simply to call balls and strikes.

Continue reading Webb-Gorsuch vs. Welch-Roberts →

What can 2004 tell us about 2020?

Elections, Politics

By Steve Brawner, © 2019 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

The country had a first-term Republican president elected after losing the popular vote whom Democrats desperately wanted to defeat. The party’s early frontrunner was the party’s previous choice for vice president. A fiery liberal insurgent gained support even as there were questions about electability. Ultimately, Democrats chose the candidate they thought gave them the best chance to win in November.

That paragraph describes the 2020 campaign up until the last sentence, which still remains to be written this year. But it also describes the last time Democrats were trying to unseat a first-term Republican president in 2004.

Can that election provide a roadmap for 2020? It’s worth a quick study. Continue reading What can 2004 tell us about 2020? →

Hutchinson sticks his neck out for highways

Elections, State government

Democrats, Alabama, blue wave, school boards, Hixson, Breanne, red tide, judicial electionsBy Steve Brawner, © 2019 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

Let’s say you’re headed into your second midterm election before being term-limited out of office, and you really don’t have much to campaign for. Your party controls Arkansas’ entire congressional delegation and three-fourths of the state Legislature now, which won’t change much regardless of what you do.

How do you spend your time? If you’re Gov. Asa Hutchinson, you try to persuade Arkansans to extend a half-cent sales tax to pay for highways.

Speaking last week to the Arkansas Good Roads Foundation, Hutchinson said, “This is my number one priority in terms of a state campaign here in Arkansas. Not anything gonna distract me from it. This is a focus because it is so critical to the future of our state.”

He later told a couple of reporters he might support the effort with money from his political action committee, ASA PAC. Continue reading Hutchinson sticks his neck out for highways →