Category Archives: Elections

Cotton’s absence gave Harrington center stage

By Steve Brawner, © 2020 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

Ricky Harrington had a good week.

The Libertarian challenger to Republican Sen. Tom Cotton released a poll Oct. 10 showing he trailed Cotton only 49% to 38%, with 13% undecided. Again, that’s Harrington’s poll, and we’ll need to see other polls from independent sources, but it did get him some attention.

Cotton is a polarizing figure. His approval-disapproval rating was 44%-47% in a June poll by Talk Business & Politics and Hendrix College. Independents disapproved, 39-51.

Also, Harrington is the only challenger after the Democrat dropped out hours after the filing period ended. Libertarians haven’t really cracked the 3% threshold of statewide support in Arkansas, but Democrats generally run close to 40%. It’s likely Harrington is winning their anti-Cotton vote by default.

The poll numbers gained Harrington some attention, and he’s been raising a little money lately – around $40,000 total, his campaign said. It’s certainly nowhere near Cotton’s millions, but he could afford to run a poll.

Then on Wednesday, Harrington had the stage to himself during the debates organized by Arkansas PBS. Cotton declined to participate. It wasn’t worth his time, and he saw more harm than good in sharing the stage with his opponent.

All the state’s other Republican congressmen participated in their debates. That includes the two who are safely headed toward re-election in races contested by both Democrats and Libertarians. Continue reading

Be prepared for a weird Election Night

vote, Mark Moore, 16-year-olds, Arkansas primaries, Goodson, photo IDBy Steve Brawner, © 2020 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

Just as important as Election Day is what almost always happens on Election Night: The loser bravely congratulates the winner and accepts the people’s will, the winner congratulates the loser on a hard-fought campaign, and the rest of us turn off the TV, go to bed and continue going about our lives.

You should prepare for the likelihood that none of that will happen this time.

Instead, we won’t know who won on Election Night, or for days or possibly weeks afterwards. We’ll have to wait as states count absentee ballots, and then the loser likely will challenge the overall results in court.

In Arkansas, Gov. Asa Hutchinson issued an executive order allowing county clerks to start counting ballots 15 days before Election Day, rather than on that day. Some states must wait until Election Day, or even after the polls close, to count votes.

That includes Florida, where 18,000 mail-in ballots weren’t counted for one reason or another after March’s primaries. If the general election is close, Democrats and Republicans won’t let that sort of thing slide.

Remember 2000, when vote counters inspected individual ballots one by one for “hanging chads”? That’s what happens when an election is decided by 537 votes. It took 36 days and a 5-4 Supreme Court decision before Al Gore finally conceded Dec. 13. Even then, the results have been disputed. A review sponsored by USA Today and other newspapers found that if only ballots with fully removed chads had been counted, Gore would have won Florida by three votes and become president of the United States. Continue reading

Virus is messing with this election, too

March 31, 2020

By Steve Brawner
© 2020 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

We’re experiencing first and foremost a public health crisis and also very much an economic one. Secondarily, but not irrelevantly, the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic is also messing up this election year, as Daniel Whitfield and others know too well.

Whitfield, 33, is trying to mount an independent U.S. Senate campaign, which is never easy under any circumstance but is nearly impossible under the present one.

Independent Senate candidates have between Feb. 1 and noon May 1 to submit at least 10,000 valid registered voter signatures. Because so many of those will be disqualified, he must collect many more. His initial goal was 17,500.

Whitfield last year laid the campaign’s groundwork and amassed volunteers. Two months into his three-month signature collection effort, he says he has about 4,500 signatures in hand.

But, married to a wife with asthma, he’s self-quarantined at home and unable to attend the events that would help him collect more. Continue reading

Why should Bernie quit? It’s 17-14 before halftime

March 12, 2020

By Steve Brawner
© 2020 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

On Wednesday, the day after losing four of six states including the crucial state of Michigan, Sen. Bernie Sanders announced he is staying in the race. Good for him, and no, I’m not a supporter.

After that day’s results and Super Tuesday the week before, Sanders is facing pressure to quit so Democrats can unite behind former Vice President Joe Biden.

But only 24 states have voted. In a race where 1,991 delegates are needed, Biden is leading Sanders, 861-710. That’s the equivalent of Biden leading, 17-14, before halftime.

Biden likely will extend his lead on Tuesday, when Arizona, Florida, Illinois and Ohio vote. At that point, the calls for Sanders to drop out will grow even louder. But 22 states and the District of Columbia still will not have voted. Is it really time to shut them out of the process? The score will still be close, and it will still be early in the third quarter. Continue reading

‘Voters should pick their politicians,’ not vice versa

March 10, 2020

By Steve Brawner
© 2020 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

If I asked you which political issues fire you up the most, “legislative redistricting” probably wouldn’t make the top 10. But ensuring the democratic process is fair and not rigged is ultimately more important than whatever political dispute we’re having at the moment.

A group called Arkansas Voters First last Thursday filed a proposed constitutional amendment that would change how Arkansas redraws congressional and state legislative lines after each census, which is occurring this year. The League of Women Voters is the effort’s public face. If the group collects enough signatures and withstands the inevitable court challenge, the amendment will be on the ballot in November.

The goal is to reduce gerrymandering, where the political party in power stuffs the other party’s voters into a small number of districts and then spreads its own voters around, thus maintaining a disproportionate legislative majority.

One of the initiative’s organizers, David Couch, told me its rationale is, “Voters should pick their politicians, and politicians should not pick their voters.”

Couch told me the effort has sufficient financial backing and polled in the high 60s. He also sponsored the recent initiatives passed by voters to raise the minimum wage and legalize medical marijuana.

Currently, the Arkansas Legislature draws the lines for the U.S. House of Representatives, while the Board of Apportionment composed of the governor, secretary of state and attorney general draws the Legislature’s lines.

If Arkansas Voters First has its way, Arkansans would apply to be members of a nine-member commission effectively composed of three Republicans, three Democrats, and three independents or members of another party. The Arkansas Supreme Court chief justice would appoint a three-judge panel to cull the list to 30 from each group. The governor and legislative leaders each could remove two from each group. The final nine members, three from each of the three groups, would be selected randomly. Congressional and state legislative maps would have to be approved by at least six members, including at least two from each group.

Gerrymandering is almost as old as the Constitution, but it’s become a bigger concern in recent years as the electorate has become more divided and as Big Data has allowed Republicans and Democrats to precisely define us and separate us.

As reported by David Daley’s 2016 book, whose title includes an unprintable word, Republicans prioritized state legislative races in 2010 and gained almost 700 seats nationwide knowing those offices would redraw the lines after that year’s census. Democrats were caught flat-footed.

Thanks in large part to technology-driven gerrymandering, Republicans controlled 33 more seats in the U.S. House after the 2012 elections despite Democrats winning 1.4 million more votes overall. In Ohio that year, Republicans won 51% of the vote statewide but controlled 12 of the state’s 16 U.S. House seats. In Pennsylvania, Democrats won 83,000 more votes statewide, but Republicans controlled 13 of 18 House seats.

I’m an independent. If you’re a Republican, you’re response to all this might be, “Good! It helped our side.” But remember that what comes around goes around.

Arkansas’ current lines were drawn when Democrats were still in charge after the 2010 census. They tried to gerrymander, but Republicans won anyway at the ballot box, which is where elections should be won.

Now Republicans control the three Board of Apportionment offices and three-fourths of the Legislature. The 2nd Congressional District in central Arkansas is somewhat competitive. By gerrymandering the maps, Republicans in 2022 can probably add a few seats to their already huge legislative majority and take the 2nd District completely out of play.

Arkansas Voters First’s effort will be opposed by some Republican officials who will argue the current system works fine and that the effort’s timing is suspect, given that this will be the first redistricting where they can draw the lines after a century-and-a-half of Democratic Party rule. It’s our turn, some will say.

If voters have a chance to decide, the argument should be not about whether gerrymandering is a good thing, because it’s not, or whether politicians will gerrymander, because they will, but whether Arkansas Voters First’s initiative is actually the right way to prevent it.

That is, unless we want a rigged system, which, unfortunately, some people do.

Steve Brawner is a syndicated columnist in Arkansas. Email him at brawnersteve@mac.com. Follow him on Twitter at @stevebrawner.