By Steve Brawner

© 2019 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

June 18, 2018

The 2022 Arkansas governor’s race last week went from “potentially a competitive campaign” to “things just got interesting.”

The conventional wisdom was that Lt. Gov. Tim Griffin would face Attorney General Leslie Rutledge, with state Sen. Jim Hendren potentially running and then the winner of that Republican primary opposing whoever the Democrats could find. The Republican primary would be a good race, but it was still three years away, so there were plenty of other things to talk about.

Then last Thursday, we learned via presidential tweet that Sarah Huckabee Sanders, President Trump’s press secretary and Mike and Janet Huckabee’s daughter, is coming home to Arkansas. Trump fueled an already existing rumor by tweeting he hopes Sanders runs for governor.

Sanders confirmed nothing. She might decide to cash in on her celebrity while being a mom, rather than try to return to the Governor’s Mansion where she spent much of her childhood.

But if she runs for governor? That’s must see TV.

If Sanders enters the governor’s race, or any other race, she blows up all preceding political considerations. Celebrities often beat regular politicians. Trump defeated a crowd of Republican suits in 2016 before beating another celebrity, Hillary Clinton. Arnold Schwarzenegger was elected California’s governor in 2003, and professional wrestler Jesse “The Body” Ventura was elected Minnesota’s governor in 1998. Ukrainians recently elected as president an actor who played their president in a television comedy show.

Arkansas has never had a woman governor, so between Sanders and Rutledge someone would break new ground. Of the two, Sanders would seem to have the edge over Rutledge. The two have similar personalities and communication styles, but Sanders is nationally known. Rutledge has certainly cultivated ties with the White House, but she’s not closer to Trump than Sanders. Like Sanders, she has options. Here’s a prediction: If Trump is re-elected in 2020, Rutledge accepts a presidential appointment somewhere before her term ends.

That would leave Griffin and Hendren, but not really Hendren. State legislators aren’t celebrities, and those like Hendren who legislate constructively in a bipartisan fashion are vulnerable in their own party primaries. I don’t see him running.

So let’s look at a Sanders vs. Griffin primary.

Griffin is a conservative Republican seeking to cut taxes and limit government social programs. For example, I don’t think he would kill Arkansas Works, which uses mostly federal dollars to purchase private health insurance for a quarter million lower-income Arkansans. But he would try to shrink it – more so than Gov. Asa Hutchinson, who has staunchly defended the program while trying to add a work requirement.

We don’t really know what Sanders would do with Arkansas Works or how she really stands on many other issues. Mostly, we’ve heard her defend someone else’s positions.

But the apple may not fall far from the tree. Her dad presided over the creation of ARKids First, the government health insurance program that covers lower-income children. Some conservatives got mad at him for that. He was kind of progressive on other issues, too; for example, he successfully passed a sales tax increase for state parks and conservation efforts.

I suspect Sanders would be more open than Griffin to using government to meet social needs.

If that’s the case, it would present voters with some interesting choices in the Republican primary. Republicans would choose between a more aggressive government-cutter versus the famous, beloved loyal deputy of a president they really like. Democratic voters might want to cross over and vote in the Republican primary against Sanders because of her association with Trump. But she would be more likely to favor policies they would support.

This would be a hard-fought race. Griffin is ambitious and aggressive, and he’ll take the gloves off and hit hard at times. Sanders has proven time and again she can take a punch and then punch back. Or punch first.

Again, it’s three years away. Sanders has many options and can become very rich the day she leaves the White House. Maybe Trump’s not as popular with Republicans in three years; maybe he’s more so. Open governor’s seats don’t come along very often, and many people would like to be governor. There’s no telling who will run, and who won’t.

At this point, we can only imagine scenarios. But now several include Sarah Huckabee Sanders. Things just got really interesting.

Steve Brawner is a syndicated columnist in Arkansas. Email him at brawnersteve@mac.com. Follow him on Twitter at @stevebrawner.