By Steve Brawner, © 2024 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

Many questions await answers after Election Day. Let’s consider a few of them, starting with …

Which party will control the Senate and the House of Representatives? The answer, or answers, will largely determine the next president’s agenda. If everything is controlled by one party, then the president will have an easier time accomplishing some of his or her goals – or at least he or she won’t be investigated by congressional committees. If one party controls the White House and the Senate, then more of the president’s judicial appointments will be confirmed. Otherwise, we’ll generally have gridlock, which may be the best scenario given the alternatives.

Gridlock basically is what we have now. Democrats control the Senate, 51-49, while Republicans control the House, 220-212 with three vacancies. 

After the election, Republicans likely will control the Senate because Democrats are defending 23 of the 34 contested seats, including some in states where they are vulnerable. Those include an open West Virginia seat that Republicans will win, and a Montana seat where the Republican is leading the Democratic incumbent. If Republicans gain control, Arkansas’ Sen. John Boozman is in line to chair the Agriculture Committee. 

As for the House, the website fivethirtyeight.com is running 1,000 simulations to predict the outcome. As of Thursday, Republicans maintained control in 527 simulations, while Democrats won control 473 times. 

The site’s latest forecast had Republicans maintaining a 218-217 majority. That’s a sliver. One representative could hold up any business for any reason. Two unexpected vacancies could upset the balance of power. 

If that forecast is correct, all four of Arkansas’ House members could be in important leadership positions. Rep. Rick Crawford could chair the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. Rep. French Hill could chair the Financial Services Committee. Rep. Steve Womack already chairs a subcommittee on the powerful Appropriations Committee. Rep. Bruce Westerman already chairs the Natural Resources Committee.

Let’s move to Arkansas state races, where one big question is …

Will Democrats make any gains in state legislative races this year? Republicans currently control 82 of the 100 House seats and 29 of the 35 Senate seats. Democrats dream of reaching 25%-plus-one in one of the chambers. Doing so would give them a say in spending bills, which require a 75% majority to pass. 

That would require them to gain eight House seats or three Senate seats, both of which are highly unlikely. However, any gains would be a victory for Democrats after the party’s losses in recent years. 

Among the races to watch is House District 9, where Rep. DeAnna Hodges, R-Springdale, faces educator Diana Gonzales Worthen. Democrats hope northwest Arkansas’ demographic and population changes will help them attain a foothold. Another is House District 62, where Rep. Mark McElroy, R-Tillar, faces a challenge from Democrat Dexter Miller. This is a rematch from two years ago, when McElroy won by 197 votes. Another interesting race is House District 78 covering parts of Pulaski, Saline and Perry Counties. Rep. Keith Brooks, R-Little Rock, the lead House sponsor of Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders’ LEARNS Act, faces Democrat James Bartolomei.

At the same time, Democrats must win in swing districts they currently control, or the Republican majority could increase. Those include House District 56, where Rep. Stephen Magie, D-Conway, faces a challenge from Republican business owner Kim Slaughter.

Of course, not every item on the ballot involves human candidates. Another question to be answered is …

Will Arkansans revoke the Pope County casino license? Issue 2 also would require all future casinos approved statewide to also be approved in a special election in the county where the casino would be located. 

In 2018, 61% of Pope County residents voted against the amendment that passed statewide and made the casino possible. It will be interesting to see if they still feel that way now that plans have been made. Regardless, it’s again a statewide vote. One unknown factor is voter confusion: A vote for Issue 2 is a vote against the casino, and vice versa.

Of course, most of the attention Tuesday will be on the presidential race. While it’s important who wins, it’s more important that the process unfolds as it should. If Americans ever value temporary electoral victories over the fair and orderly transfer of power, we’ll have taken a major step toward authoritarianism. 

In other words, let’s hope for a clear result, gracious concession and acceptance speeches, and a decisive end to this election season.

Will all that happen? That’s another question to be answered. 

Steve Brawner is a syndicated columnist published in 17 outlets in Arkansas. Email him at brawnersteve@mac.com.