What matters: Voters’ view of the world

By Steve Brawner
© 2017 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

The news is about what’s new, but people’s worldviews are about what’s permanent, and that’s one of the things that makes it difficult to run for office as an Arkansas Democrat right now.

I write that sentence after a lot of news lately coming from the White House, where President Trump fired the FBI director investigating his campaign regarding the Russians, threatened that director by implying their conversations were secretly taped, and, according to press reports relying on anonymous sources, supposedly revealed to those Russians highly classified information.

News like that typically would spell trouble for a president, and indeed, the latest Gallup poll, conducted before the report about the classified information, showed Trump’s approval rating at 38 percent, down from 45 percent at the beginning of his term. By comparison, President Obama’s approval rating was 65 percent at this point.

Arkansas Democrats next November will point to these past couple of weeks as they try to reverse their electoral losses of the past eight years. But they’ll still fight a losing battle because all of this is merely news, which is temporary.

Meanwhile, humans construct permanent worldviews to try to make sense of everything, and we will fight to the death to protect them, particularly when presented with challenging information.

Anyone can discount these events by pointing to FBI Director James Comey’s shortcomings or questioning the news reports’ unidentified sources. The temporary news doesn’t change the fact that Trump affirms the permanent worldviews of many Arkansans, much more so than Democrats at the national level. That’s why he won Arkansas with 60 percent of the vote against a Democratic nominee who was the state’s first lady for 12 years. And that’s why the last poll I saw, by Talk Business & Politics and Hendrix College, showed him maintaining that support, albeit before the events of the past week.

Research is showing that Americans increasingly are voting along party lines (while increasingly claiming to be independent), starting with the presidential race and then moving down the ticket. So it will not be enough for Arkansas Democrats to merely point to Trump, or try to distinguish themselves from the national party, or proclaim their support for issues such as expanding pre-kindergarten classes. Democrats will have to speak to Arkansans’ worldviews while hoping that national candidates do the same.

And that’s the problem, because national Democratic candidates’ worldviews will reflect their own states and the states the party needs more than Arkansas. Americans see the world very differently on issues like guns, which for many Chicagoans are a way to murder people and for many rural Arkansans a way of life. When the chairman of the Democratic National Committee, Tom Perez, recently said all Democrats must support abortion rights, or when Hillary Clinton said the fetus has no rights at all, they reflected their own worldviews and the worldviews of people they know best. But such statements make it a lot harder for Democrats to win the votes of pro-life Arkansans.

For Democrats to make major gains in Arkansas any time soon, they’ll need more than just missteps by Trump. They’ll need the national party’s tone to shift. On economic issues, Democrats must reclaim their status as the party of the common man that the billionaire Trump so effectively stole from them last year running against a candidate painted as corporatist, globalist and elitist. Meanwhile, on social issues, Democratic candidates must better straddle the middle between left and right. Not banishing pro-lifers from the party would be a start.

Affirming the worldviews of social liberals and cultural conservatives is extremely difficult, and many Democrats have no desire to do so. Some in the party believe states like Arkansas should just be written off. But the party has built bridges in the past, including with a candidate whose last name was Clinton. Just not the one whose first name was Hillary.

In this highly divided society, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to speak to more than half of Americans. But for Democrats, Republicans and others, an American majority can be found along the path that the free market is good but hardworking people shouldn’t be left behind; that society needs a safety net but not a hammock; that the military must be strong; and that individual rights must be protected but traditional values not forgotten.

Vocally embracing that worldview opens a lot of doors, while still leaving room for differing views on the temporary news of the day.

Walking away from the game

By Steve Brawner
© 2017 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

One of the Razorbacks’ best players announced this week that he was retiring as a college sophomore. For football fans and the entities that profit from the game, the bigger issue is the number of young people who might never play at all.

Rawleigh Williams had already suffered one neck injury his freshman season, had a successful surgery, and returned to lead the Southeastern Conference in rushing, putting him on the path to a pro career.

Then in the Razorbacks’ final spring practice April 29, he made ordinary contact with a defensive player and fell to the ground, unable to rise. Medical personnel rushed to his side along with Head Coach Bret Bielema and then his distressed mother, Kim, and his sister. A ruptured disc in his neck was surgically replaced and fused in place.

That was enough for Williams, who announced his decision to end his playing career but not to leave the game. In an essay on the Arkansas Razorbacks’ website, he said he could not bear to put his mother and sister through another such episode, adding, “I want to be able to walk.” He’ll keep his scholarship and finish his education in hopes of an office career in football.

We’ve all grown immune to seeing young men carried off a field after a “season-ending injury” that could affect them the rest of their lives. In the worst cases, there’s a long delay as players kneel and the crowd grows silent. Otherwise, the broadcast goes to replay and then commercial, and then play resumes with a replacement player briefly introduced.

It’s the worst part of a very entertaining show. But the reality is that many players who make it to the NFL become broken middle-aged men thanks to a sport that even the Buffalo Bills’ general manager last year acknowledged humans are not supposed to play. Among the health issues are concussion-caused brain ailments such as chronic traumatic encephalopathy, or CTE, a degenerative disorder that can strike relatively early in life. We’ve also learned, thanks to the book “League of Denial,” that the National Football League denied the sport’s link to brain injuries much like the tobacco industry did with smoking and lung cancer.

The ultimate result of the research was a billion dollar settlement requiring the NFL to compensate 20,000 ex-NFL players. The NCAA also agreed to a much smaller settlement for college players.

Yes, every player has made a choice to step on that field. But let’s be honest: Society takes a kid, often from the wrong side of the tracks, and gradually makes the game more rewarding. Through junior high and high school, he plays in front of adoring crowds, leading to a college scholarship to play in front of even larger crowds, and then, if he’s good enough, NFL riches. Warnings about what might happen in 40 years often fall on deaf ears. By the time a young man appreciates the risks, he’s a football player with responsibilities. According to former pro tight end Jordan Cameron, who retired after four concussions in six years, many players don’t actually love the game.

Of course there is another side to the argument. Many players in high school, college and the pros do love the game. Rawleigh Williams does. Young men are going to take risks, prove their manhood, and find outlets for their testosterone-fueled impulses. It’s been said the last words of many a Southern male are, “Hey, watch this!” Isn’t it better if these things happen in an organized activity with rules, a sense of brotherhood, and a clock that ends the activity on time?

It seems few people have boycotted football since “League of Denial” was published, but the game’s long-term and short-term risks must be better appreciated than they were. While young men may see themselves as the next star player, many of their mothers see themselves as potentially the next Kim Williams looking at her son lying prone on the field. How many are discouraging – or forbidding – their sons from ever playing the game? Surely some.

Football increasingly will be something that most people never actually do, even as children, because of the risks and because there are just so many other choices. So would fewer people playing the game lead to fewer people interested in the game? Seems likely, if not undeniable.

Related: Whew, that’s a lot of debt for football seats

This family’s really super

Jeremy, Elizabeth, Kenneth and Miles Spann are ready to take flight at the Walk for the Waiting.

By Steve Brawner
© 2017 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

Superman was adopted. So were Batman, Spiderman, and Kenneth and Miles Spann.

You probably haven’t heard of Kenneth, 8, and Miles, 7, yet. But someday you might. They might seem like the ordinary children of Little Rock parents Jeremy and Elizabeth Spann, but they’re already developing their superpowers.

“We’ve had a lot of first birthday parties, first bike riding, first vacations, just seeing them grow into individual people, and they’re just amazing,” Elizabeth Spann said. “They’re the most resilient kids ever. They’re so bright, so funny.”

Spann made those comments on the football field at War Memorial Stadium in Little Rock May 6 shortly before the family participated in the Walk for the Waiting.

That’s the annual event that raises funding for three faith-based organizations that serve children in the foster care system: The CALL in Arkansas, which recruits and trains foster and adoptive parents; Project Zero, which links prospective adoptive parents and children; and Immerse Arkansas, which serves young people who are aging out of the system without finding a permanent home.

This year’s Walk for the Waiting drew a couple of thousand participants and so far has raised most of its $300,000 goal. Its other purpose was to raise awareness and recruit people to serve the state’s foster care population, which ballooned from 3,806 in 2015 to 5,209 by last September but has leveled off and stood at 5,155 as of May 5.

Foster children are those whom the state’s Division of Children and Family Services (http://www.fosterarkansas.org) temporarily has removed from their biological families because of abuse, drug abuse and other issues. The goal is to return the children home as soon as their parents are ready to take care of them. When the courts determine they cannot be returned, parental rights are terminated and the children become eligible for adoption. About 500 foster children are eligible, 200 of whom are already in pre-adoptive homes.

Superman’s human dad, Jonathan Kent, brought him home after he discovered the spacecraft that had carried the young boy from the planet Krypton.

Kenneth and Miles were discovered a little less dramatically. The Spanns, unsuccessful at having children even after infertility treatments, had decided to adopt and were looking through photos on Project Zero’s online “Heart Gallery” when they found their two future sons, whom they adopted at ages 5 and 4.

What drew them to those two?

“They have the prettiest smiles, and they look so happy, and their eyes, their eyes sparkle,” Elizabeth Spann said. “Still do.”

The parents have their own secret identities: Jeremy is a science teacher, while Elizabeth is a school psychologist. Creating a new family can tax the powers of any such mortal man or woman, but it hasn’t been too difficult for the Spanns. Among the challenges: They are white, and Kenneth and Miles are African-American. A few people stare at them in stores, but most are very supportive, and African-American friends have taught Elizabeth about hair and skin care. Meanwhile, the sons are not troubled by the cosmetic differences.

“It’s surprisingly not as big a challenge as we expected it to be,” she said. “They’re super understanding. They notice right away that they’re brown and we’re not. They’re super fascinated by it, especially like in the summer when they notice that I get browner. They love that. They’re like, ‘You’re almost as brown as we are now!’”

Unlike Superman, the sons know from the beginning who they are, where they come from, and what makes them special. Still, part of their parents’ job will be helping them make sense of it all. They’ve decorated their sons’ room with superhero references, including signs with messages such as “Superman was adopted.” Every member of the family wore a cape or another superhero-related article of clothing at the Walk for the Waiting.

“We do a lot of things with superheroes,” she said. “We always tell them, you know, Batman was adopted, Superman was adopted, Spiderman was adopted, so we always kind of talk about that. So talking to them about their origin story as a superhero is important. And they’re little, so we try to figure out how much to tell them at a time.”

Sounds like there are four heroes in that home.

Related:
He has an iPod. He wants a family.
Trading an empty nest for a full house.

Can The Centrist Project pioneer a new way?

By Steve Brawner
© 2017 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

Forty-four percent of Americans are independents, according to Gallup, but only 2 percent of United States senators are, and one of those is Sen. Bernie Sanders, who’s really a Democrat. Could a few more independents form a decisive voting bloc that would force Republicans and Democrats to solve problems?

That’s a question Joel Searby and the other founders of The Centrist Project are trying to answer.

Searby ran the 2016 independent presidential campaign of Evan McMullen, a former Republican congressional staff member and ex-CIA officer who won 21 percent of the vote in Utah and 1 percent in Arkansas.

Now, Searby and others with The Centrist Project are trying to recruit and strategically fund credible independent candidates in 2018, with one focus being the U.S. Senate where they could make the most difference.

Congress, you may have noticed, is a partisan mess where the focus is more on scoring political points than solving problems. In the past, the two parties were each a diverse mix of conservatives, liberals and moderates who could work across party lines. But Republicans have moved right while Democrats have moved left, with few left in the center to bridge the gap.

The Centrist Project is trying to step in and find a few states where the climate is best-suited to electing independents to the Senate and elsewhere who are fiscally responsible, practical minded, problem solving, environmentally responsible and socially tolerant.

What does all that mean? Searby said it’s more about an approach to government than a set of ideological beliefs. Regarding being “socially tolerant,” he says he’s a pro-life, pro-family conservative, but the centrist approach means not vilifying the other side or holding other issues hostage.

“That’s how (parties) frame every issue is around enemies and friends, and so we’re just really trying to overcome that,” he said.

Three to five independents in the U.S. Senate could control the balance of power by voting with one party or the other based on the issue, forcing Republicans and Democrats out of their us-versus-them comfort zone. The new independents could work with current independent Sen. Angus King of Maine along with Republicans and Democrats who have independent streaks, including Sen. Ben Sasse, R-Nebraska, and Sen. Joe Manchin, D-West Virginia.

Searby said the Project is looking for attractive candidates with the ability to self-fund or attract a potential network of supporters – like McMullin or Greg Orman, the Kansas businessman who ran a strong but ultimately losing campaign for the U.S. Senate in 2014. It is talking with potential Senate candidates in eight states where an independent might have success because of a state’s political climate and size – a small, cheap state like Maine being preferable to a big, expensive one like California. Meanwhile, it’s also targeting other races in an effort to get wins wherever it can.

Arkansas does not have a Senate race in 2018 is not a target, anyway. The state’s rapid transformation from a conservative Democratic state to a Trump-Republican stronghold makes it less likely an independent could emerge here, Searby said.

It’s going to be an uphill climb. Most Americans who tell pollsters they are independents aren’t really. The reality is, whether they admit it or not, most are reliably voting for one party or the other. Moreover, congressional gerrymandering (drawing lines to benefit a party) and Americans’ self-sorting personal decisions have made most districts reliably Republican or Democrat. In other words, we typically live amongst people who vote like us in states that are either red or blue. Meanwhile, the parties have huge, well-funded infrastructures and have written election laws to favor themselves. The system strongly encourages voters to choose one party over the other, even if it’s just to pick the lesser of two evils.

After running McMullin’s long-shot campaign, Searby believes that independents eventually will break through. He said political professionals who are fed up with the two parties seemed open to different kinds of candidates. Members of the media seemed ready to tell a new story.

“The bottom line is, we know we’re pushing against decades of trends and beliefs and partisan work and money, and it’s going to be hard, but just because something’s hard doesn’t mean that it’s not worth doing, and just because something’s hard doesn’t mean that it’s not going to come,” he said. “We really believe that we are pioneering a new way in American politics.”

$23.33 less debt

By Steve Brawner
© 2017 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

The past couple of weeks showed two different ways to react when you don’t have enough money coming in: the Arkansas state government reaction, which is relatively effective, and the federal reaction, which isn’t at all.

Why the difference? One big reason is that Arkansas has a structure for responding to budget shortfalls and, more important, a culture that respects that structure. The federal government has neither nor the structure nor the culture.

Let’s start with Arkansas. The state’s budgetary decisions are governed by the Revenue Stabilization Act, a law passed in 1945 that is amended by the Legislature each budget cycle and sets the parameters for a balanced budget. Under the act, state spending is divided into categories: an essential Category A and a much smaller, spend-it-if-we’ve-got-it Category B.

State revenues this year have been a little lower than was budgeted because sales and corporate income tax revenues are lower than expected while income tax refunds have been higher.

Faced with a deficit, on Friday Gov. Asa Hutchinson announced that various state agencies would see total cuts of $70 million in Category B (out of a $5.33 billion general revenue budget) to make up the difference. The announcement took up part of a half-hour news conference that also covered the death penalty and the health care-related legislative session occurring this week. And that was that.

Contrast that with what happened in Washington, D.C., where members of Congress, faced with a looming government shutdown, managed last week to pass a continuing resolution to fund the government for another week – a process that happens so often these days that Americans hardly even notice anymore. Then on Monday it was announced that the Trump administration and Congress had agreed to a $1.1 trillion spending bill that increases money for defense and other areas while not cutting much elsewhere. The bill does not affect Social Security and Medicare, the government’s biggest programs, which Trump has vowed not to cut.

This is happening within the context of a federal government that is expected this fiscal year to spend $4 trillion but only collect $3.4 trillion, leaving a $559 billion deficit ($1,731 per American) that is being added to the $20 trillion national debt ($62,000 per American).

Meanwhile, President Trump released the bare outlines for tax cuts that the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget guesstimates will reduce federal revenues by $5.5 trillion over the next decade. His administration promises the tax cuts will spur enough economic growth to pay for themselves, but history has shown that rosy scenario simply won’t happen. History has shown, however, that when a president calls for tax cuts, there’s a good chance taxes will be cut.

For comparison, the federal government’s deficit for 2017 is 14 percent of expected expenses, and nothing is being done to close the gap. In Arkansas, the $70 million shortfall – $23.33 per Arkansan – was 1.3 percent of the state budget, and Hutchinson filled it with nary a peep from the Legislature or the affected agencies.

So why can’t Uncle Sam do what Gov. Asa did? There are many reasons, but one of the biggest is the fact that the federal government doesn’t have effective structural controls like the Revenue Stabilization Act.

A national Revenue Stabilization Act is not the answer. Letting the president unilaterally make cuts would give him or her too much power and would be unconstitutional. One potential solution is an amendment to the Constitution requiring a balanced budget, an idea that goes back to the Founding Fathers. Sometimes that idea gains some traction, but there always have been too many opponents who’ve stopped it without offering a better idea.

Even if it were to pass, the culture of Washington still would have to be changed. A balanced budget amendment could be bypassed like other parts of the Constitution are bypassed now.

On the other hand, a structure helps create a culture. Gov. Hutchinson acted so decisively and uncontroversially in 2017 in large part because the Revenue Stabilization Act, passed in 1945, has become ingrained in the way we do things here over the past 72 years.

Regardless, future generations of Arkansans can be thankful they someday won’t have to pay back that $23.33.

They can apply it to the $20 trillion.