Cotton’s absence gave Harrington center stage

By Steve Brawner, © 2020 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

Ricky Harrington had a good week.

The Libertarian challenger to Republican Sen. Tom Cotton released a poll Oct. 10 showing he trailed Cotton only 49% to 38%, with 13% undecided. Again, that’s Harrington’s poll, and we’ll need to see other polls from independent sources, but it did get him some attention.

Cotton is a polarizing figure. His approval-disapproval rating was 44%-47% in a June poll by Talk Business & Politics and Hendrix College. Independents disapproved, 39-51.

Also, Harrington is the only challenger after the Democrat dropped out hours after the filing period ended. Libertarians haven’t really cracked the 3% threshold of statewide support in Arkansas, but Democrats generally run close to 40%. It’s likely Harrington is winning their anti-Cotton vote by default.

The poll numbers gained Harrington some attention, and he’s been raising a little money lately – around $40,000 total, his campaign said. It’s certainly nowhere near Cotton’s millions, but he could afford to run a poll.

Then on Wednesday, Harrington had the stage to himself during the debates organized by Arkansas PBS. Cotton declined to participate. It wasn’t worth his time, and he saw more harm than good in sharing the stage with his opponent.

All the state’s other Republican congressmen participated in their debates. That includes the two who are safely headed toward re-election in races contested by both Democrats and Libertarians. Continue reading →

Are there other choices? Actually 11

Jo Jorgensen is the Libertarian presidential candidate.

By Steve Brawner, © 2020 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

Surely some who endured the presidential debate  must be asking themselves this question: Is there another choice?

For Arkansas voters, the answer is yes. Actually, there are 11.

The most credible third party candidate is Dr. Jo Jorgensen, the Libertarian. Jorgensen is a Clemson University psychology professor and was the party’s candidate for vice president in 1996. She made an August campaign stop in Little Rock where she gave a good speech and was impressive in an interview.

Libertarians favor extremely limited government, which some Americans might like in theory until they saw it would mean ending popular programs such as Social Security and Medicare. On the other hand, their taxes certainly would be lower. Continue reading →

Poll: Libertarian Harrington trails Cotton, 49-38

Ricky Harrington speaks at a campaign event in Little Rock Aug. 28.

By Steve Brawner, © 2020 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

Libertarian candidate Ricky Harrington trails U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton, 49-38%, according to a poll commissioned by the Harrington campaign.

Thirteen percent were undecided. The poll of 600 likely voters by American Research Group conducted late last week had a margin of error of plus-minus 4%, the Harrington campaign said.

Harrington is Cotton’s sole challenger because the only Democratic to file, Josh Mahony, dropped out of the race hours after the filing period closed. An independent candidate, Dan Whitfield, tried without success to collect enough signatures to qualify for the ballot.

He’s picking up the protest vote that would have gone to Mahony or another Democrat.

Harrington reported raising $5,120.49 as of June 30 in his most recent filing report with the Federal Election Commission. Howington said there has been a significant increase in donations in the last few weeks.

Cotton, meanwhile, had raised almost $10 million, including transfers from other committees, and had $6 million on hand as of June 30.

Harrington’s press secretary, Andy Howington, said, “We are hopeful for an ‘October Surprise’ as more people are introduced to Mr. Harrington’s campaign in these last few weeks. The uncertainty in this race, coupled with the results of this poll, provide us a vision for a path to victory. We will work hard to court these undecided voters, and maybe even take some from Senator Cotton in the process. No one expected us to be here.”

Howington pointed to the FiveThirtyEight website, which predicted Cotton would win with 82.1% of the vote. It gives Cotton a greater than 99% chance of winning based on a model that simulates the election 40,000 times.

A debate between the candidates by Arkansas PBS is scheduled for 3 p.m. Wednesday, but only Harrington is scheduled to appear. Arkansas PBS will livestream Harrington’s appearance here and here.  It will air it at 7 p.m.

Related:

A third option for president visits Arkansas

Are there other choices? Actually 11

Fix the system? Not this year

By Steve Brawner, © 2020 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

Two important citizen-led initiatives that could have been on your ballot this election cycle won’t be.

One would have changed the way Arkansas draws its congressional and state legislative maps, which is done every 10 years after each U.S. census under the U.S. Constitution. Currently, the Legislature draws the congressional lines while the governor, attorney general and secretary of state draw the legislative lines.

Unfortunately, the majority party can take advantage of this process to draw squiggly lines to stuff the other party’s voters into a few districts while spreading theirs strategically. This “gerrymandering” is almost as old as the republic, but technology has made it an exact science. Politicians can pick their voters rather than the other way around.

The initiative’s purpose was to take the power away from the politicians and their computers. An independent commission composed of three Republicans, three Democrats and three members of neither party would have been in charge of the process. Continue reading →

Be prepared for a weird Election Night

vote, Mark Moore, 16-year-olds, Arkansas primaries, Goodson, photo IDBy Steve Brawner, © 2020 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

Just as important as Election Day is what almost always happens on Election Night: The loser bravely congratulates the winner and accepts the people’s will, the winner congratulates the loser on a hard-fought campaign, and the rest of us turn off the TV, go to bed and continue going about our lives.

You should prepare for the likelihood that none of that will happen this time.

Instead, we won’t know who won on Election Night, or for days or possibly weeks afterwards. We’ll have to wait as states count absentee ballots, and then the loser likely will challenge the overall results in court.

In Arkansas, Gov. Asa Hutchinson issued an executive order allowing county clerks to start counting ballots 15 days before Election Day, rather than on that day. Some states must wait until Election Day, or even after the polls close, to count votes.

That includes Florida, where 18,000 mail-in ballots weren’t counted for one reason or another after March’s primaries. If the general election is close, Democrats and Republicans won’t let that sort of thing slide.

Remember 2000, when vote counters inspected individual ballots one by one for “hanging chads”? That’s what happens when an election is decided by 537 votes. It took 36 days and a 5-4 Supreme Court decision before Al Gore finally conceded Dec. 13. Even then, the results have been disputed. A review sponsored by USA Today and other newspapers found that if only ballots with fully removed chads had been counted, Gore would have won Florida by three votes and become president of the United States. Continue reading →