Category Archives: Politics

What can 2004 tell us about 2020?

Elections, Politics

By Steve Brawner, © 2019 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

The country had a first-term Republican president elected after losing the popular vote whom Democrats desperately wanted to defeat. The party’s early frontrunner was the party’s previous choice for vice president. A fiery liberal insurgent gained support even as there were questions about electability. Ultimately, Democrats chose the candidate they thought gave them the best chance to win in November.

That paragraph describes the 2020 campaign up until the last sentence, which still remains to be written this year. But it also describes the last time Democrats were trying to unseat a first-term Republican president in 2004.

Can that election provide a roadmap for 2020? It’s worth a quick study. Continue reading What can 2004 tell us about 2020? →

What we know, expect, and can only guess in 2020

Politics

By Steve Brawner, © 2020 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

As 2019 fades into 2020, some things in politics we know, some things we can expect, and some things we can only guess.

First, here’s what we know: President Trump has been impeached. Here’s what we can expect: The Senate will certainly acquit him (whenever the House finally presents the case), with Arkansas Sens. Tom Cotton and John Boozman voting alongside their Republican colleagues in support of the president. We also can expect an extremely interesting greeting, or lack of one, between Trump and Speaker Nancy Pelosi when Trump arrives to give the State of the Union address Feb. 4.

But here’s what we can only guess: the difference it will make in the 2020 elections. Will a majority of swing voters decide impeachment was an overreach and punish Democrats? Or will it increase their desire to remove Trump the old-fashioned way, at the ballot box? Or will impeachment even matter by next November? Continue reading What we know, expect, and can only guess in 2020 →

Not for Trump, but here’s where he’s right

Business and economics, Politics

By Steve Brawner, © 2019 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

Let’s start with some transparency: In 2016, I voted enthusiastically for Ohio Gov. John Kasich in the Republican presidential primary and then voted for Evan McMullin in the general election because he was the best alternative to Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. I don’t want President Trump to be re-elected (but also don’t support impeachment) and am hoping a credible third party candidate emerges before next November.

I said “hoping,” not “holding my breath.”

But not being a Trump supporter shouldn’t blind anyone to ways his presidency has benefitted America, particularly this: He has challenged some assumptions about trade that needed to be challenged.

For decades, the consensus among political elites has been that trade is a good thing, and it has been. It has lifted millions worldwide from poverty, reduced the chance for conflict with rivals, and introduced free markets and the concept of freedom to autocratic countries such as China. As bad as China is, it was far worse decades ago, and in the Korean War Americans and Chinese were killing each other. Meanwhile, free trade has lowered prices for American consumers. The shirt I might buy today costs about what one did when I graduated high school in 1987. Continue reading Not for Trump, but here’s where he’s right →

America in One Room

Politics

By Steve Brawner, © 2019 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

What happens when more than 500 diverse Americans are brought together to discuss politics in an informed, civil manner? People can actually change their minds about the issues, each other, and the American political system.

That’s what Stanford professor James Fishkin found through his project, “America in One Room.” He scientifically chose 500-plus Americans – five from Arkansas – to reflect America’s vast array of political viewpoints. They were flown to Dallas and spent Sept. 19-22 learning about and discussing five important issues: immigration, health care, the economy and taxes, the environment, and foreign policy.

He discussed his findings in a conference call Nov. 14 organized by Fix US. That’s a project by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget meant to bridge the distrust that makes solving problems like the national debt impossible.

Fishkin believes traditional polling techniques don’t offer valuable information. Most citizens don’t have an incentive to be very informed about particular issues. They’re busy with their responsibilities and only have one vote anyway out of millions, so they form only a “vague impression from sound bytes and headlines,” he said. When a pollster interrupts their dinner and starts asking questions, they offer “phantom opinions” rather than admit they don’t know the answer. Continue reading America in One Room →