Category Archives: Politics

Poll: Libertarian Harrington trails Cotton, 49-38

Independents and third parties, Politics, U.S. Congress
Ricky Harrington speaks at a campaign event in Little Rock Aug. 28.

By Steve Brawner, © 2020 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

Libertarian candidate Ricky Harrington trails U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton, 49-38%, according to a poll commissioned by the Harrington campaign.

Thirteen percent were undecided. The poll of 600 likely voters by American Research Group conducted late last week had a margin of error of plus-minus 4%, the Harrington campaign said.

Harrington is Cotton’s sole challenger because the only Democratic to file, Josh Mahony, dropped out of the race hours after the filing period closed. An independent candidate, Dan Whitfield, tried without success to collect enough signatures to qualify for the ballot.

He’s picking up the protest vote that would have gone to Mahony or another Democrat.

Harrington reported raising $5,120.49 as of June 30 in his most recent filing report with the Federal Election Commission. Howington said there has been a significant increase in donations in the last few weeks.

Cotton, meanwhile, had raised almost $10 million, including transfers from other committees, and had $6 million on hand as of June 30.

Harrington’s press secretary, Andy Howington, said, “We are hopeful for an ‘October Surprise’ as more people are introduced to Mr. Harrington’s campaign in these last few weeks. The uncertainty in this race, coupled with the results of this poll, provide us a vision for a path to victory. We will work hard to court these undecided voters, and maybe even take some from Senator Cotton in the process. No one expected us to be here.”

Howington pointed to the FiveThirtyEight website, which predicted Cotton would win with 82.1% of the vote. It gives Cotton a greater than 99% chance of winning based on a model that simulates the election 40,000 times.

A debate between the candidates by Arkansas PBS is scheduled for 3 p.m. Wednesday, but only Harrington is scheduled to appear. Arkansas PBS will livestream Harrington’s appearance here and here.  It will air it at 7 p.m.

Related:

A third option for president visits Arkansas

Are there other choices? Actually 11

Supreme Court: Dot this ‘i’ that can’t be dotted

Politics, State government

vote, Mark Moore, 16-year-olds, Arkansas primaries, Goodson, photo IDBy Steve Brawner, © 2020 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

The Arkansas Constitution says that “the people reserve to themselves the power to propose legislative measures, laws and amendments.” That may be so, but the people had better dot every “i” to satisfy the Arkansas Supreme Court, even if those “i’s” can’t be dotted.

The Court on Aug. 27 blocked two proposed constitutional amendments, both of whose sponsors collected roughly 150,000 signatures from Arkansas citizens to get on the November ballot.

One, sponsored by Arkansas Voters First, would create an independent legislative redistricting commission to redraw state congressional and legislative districts after each U.S. census. Currently, those lines are drawn by elected officials every 10 years.

The other, sponsored by Open Primaries Arkansas, would place all candidates in the same March or May primary, rather than dividing them into taxpayer-funded Republican and Democratic Party affairs. The top four candidates regardless of party would advance to the November general election, where voters would rank their choices. If no candidate wins a majority, then there’s a process for counting second choices.

These would be major reforms. The first would make it harder for politicians to gerrymander districts by drawing squiggly lines on maps to cherry-pick voters. The second would give voters more options so they aren’t locked into choosing between one Republican and one Democrat in November. We might have more competitive elections instead of most incumbents being unopposed, or practically unopposed, as occurs now. Continue reading Supreme Court: Dot this ‘i’ that can’t be dotted →

Is Arkansas the reddest state?

Politics, State government, U.S. Congress

By Steve Brawner, © 2020 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

Is Arkansas “the reddest state not only in the South but in the entire nation”? That’s what state Republican Party Chairman Doyle Webb said during his part of the roll call vote at the Republican National Convention.

Twelve years ago, that statement was unimaginable. Arkansas had been dominated by Democrats since the Civil War and had produced the nation’s previous president.

Now? All six members of Arkansas’ congressional delegation, its seven constitutional officers, and three-fourths of its state Legislature are Republicans. In the 2016 election, Trump beat Hillary Clinton, Arkansas’ first lady for 12 years back when Arkansas was one of the nation’s bluest states, by a 61-34% margin.

Arkansas still has many Democratic elected officials at the county level who have not yet retired, switched parties or lost. But Webb didn’t say Arkansas was the most Republican state. He called it the reddest, which is more of a national and state description and speaks to voter outlooks and trends.

Is he right? Let’s compare. Continue reading Is Arkansas the reddest state? →

How to make the Electoral College better

Politics

By Steve Brawner
© 2020 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

There’s a saying: Don’t make the perfect the enemy of the good. Here’s a new one: Don’t make the good the enemy of the better. The Electoral College definitely could be better.

The Electoral College has served us reasonably well for two-and-a-half centuries, but its flaws are being exposed. Thanks largely to its winner-take-all system, the loser of the popular vote has won two of the past five elections. The country’s deepening red-blue division means only a few swing states are in play, allowing candidates to ignore the rest – including Arkansas. Unless you live in one of those swing states, your vote really doesn’t affect the outcome.

This election, like recent ones, will be decided in those swing states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. If 39,000 voters in those three states had voted for Hillary Clinton instead of President Trump, an entirely different set of people on my Facebook feed would be mad all the time. Clinton lost despite having 2.9 million more votes nationwide. Meanwhile, the 2000 election was decided by 537 votes in Florida.

So guess where the candidates will be focusing their attention? Not blood red Arkansas. The Democratic candidate will ignore us, and Trump can take us for granted.

Supporters of the Electoral College say it helps small states like Arkansas, but that’s not necessarily true. Because of its winner-take-all system, it potentially gives outsized influence to big states. A candidate can win the 270 needed Electoral College votes by winning the 12 biggest states by one vote each and not even be on the ballot in the other 38. Continue reading How to make the Electoral College better →