Category Archives: Elections

Poll shows why GOP must ride the Trump train

Donald TrumpWe learned this week that it’s statistically possible that the only Republican voters in eastern Arkansas’ 1st District who don’t approve of President Trump are the half a dozen who said so in a poll.

The survey by Talk Business & Politics and Hendrix College found that 96.6 percent of respondents in that district said they approve of Trump’s performance. It polled 676 likely Republican primary voters statewide, or about 169 per congressional district, though it wasn’t exactly that. If it were, that would mean somewhere around six voters in the 1st said they didn’t approve of Trump or didn’t know, while the rest approve.

But the survey had a margin of error of 3.8 percent both ways, and 96.6 plus 3.8 equals more than 100. So who knows – maybe those are the only six? Continue reading →

Looks like the governor is safe

Asa HutchinsonAs the campaigns heat up before the May 22 primary …

I’d been wondering why Gov. Asa Hutchinson hadn’t been spending more of that $1.86 million he had in the bank as of March 31. A recent poll may provide the answer.

The governor has always been an overwhelming favorite to be re-elected, but if he were to face a challenge, it more likely would happen in the May Republican primary rather than the November general election. Primaries are weird because they attract a smaller turnout with more partisan voters. His opponent, Jan Morgan, is pretty good at bringing attention to herself through hot-button issues that are important in a Republican primary – guns, in particular. In the age of Donald Trump, she’s the more Trump-like candidate.

So I thought she might make the governor sweat a little. Continue reading →

Impeachment: Bad for country, and for Democrats, too

Shutdown, impeachTucked in the middle of last week’s Arkansas 2nd Congressional District debate was a disagreement between two of the four candidates – about impeaching President Trump.

Asked in the debate sponsored by KATV and Talk Business & Politics about the Russia investigation and Congress’ role as a check and balancer, Gwen Combs said she favors impeachment. Paul Spencer said he “would not even entertain that thought right now without seeing some evidence.”

On this issue, Democrats should follow Spencer’s lead – for the country’s sake, and for their own. Continue reading →

On lawsuit limits, Family Council, lawyers on same side

Politics makes strange bedfellows. Today’s friend is tomorrow’s opponent, and vice versa. Which helps explain why the Family Council, one of Arkansas’ most visible conservative groups, will be allied with trial lawyers and opposing the Chamber of Commerce this year.

It’s because of Issue 1, the tort reform amendment.

Referred to voters by the Legislature last year, Issue 1 would limit punitive damages (which punish wrongdoing) to the greater of $500,000 or three times compensatory damages, though not if the defendant intentionally caused harm. It would limit non-economic damages (pain and suffering) to $500,000, or $500,000 for all beneficiaries when the victim dies. Economic damages based on the victim’s income would not be limited, so the more the victim makes, the higher the potential award. It also would limit lawyers’ contingency fees to one-third of the judgment and let the Legislature change the state Supreme Court’s own rules.

A lot of money is at stake, so a lot of money will be spent in the campaign by November. Continue reading →

Will the Republican red tide flood Arkansas’ county elections?

Alabama, blue wave, school boards, Hixson, Breanne, red tideThe most compelling races in Arkansas this November won’t be the big ones – governor, Congress, etc. Republicans probably are going to win all of them, and most of them easily.

Instead, the county races may be the ones most worth watching. That’s because this could be the election cycle where Republicans become the majority party in Arkansas.

Republicans now control every U.S. congressional office, all statewide races, and about three-fourths of the Legislature. And it’s mostly happened since 2010, the election following the election of President Obama. Before that, Arkansas was a one-party state – in fact, one of the nation’s one-partiest – controlled by Democrats.

But for all of their dominance at the state and national levels, Republicans still hold only a minority of partisan elected seats statewide, according to their own count. GOP Chairman Doyle Webb says that of 1,524 partisan offices ranging from justice of the peace up to the major state and national offices, Republicans control 620, or only 41 percent.  Continue reading →