Let’s be honest: The federal government probably will never balance its budget again, so eventually there will be a debt crisis. Times will be harder, and Uncle Sam will not be able to bail us out.

More evidence backing this bleak outlook came July 21, when the 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.6%. By July 29, it was 4.641%.

The 10-year Treasury note is one of the ways the federal government finances its borrowing. Investors in the United States and in foreign countries purchase the bonds and then receive interest on their investment. 

Who pays for that interest? Today’s taxpayers – and tomorrow’s. The higher the yields, the more taxpayers pay. While today’s amounts are not particularly high by historical standards, they’re 60% higher than the 2.8% percent average over the last decade.

I’m not an expert, but there are several reasons for the rise. One is the fact that investors worry that inflation, driven partly by the Iran war, will lead the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. They demand higher returns to compensate for those expectations. Plus, there’s already so much government debt that the rates must rise to entice more investors.

Those higher rates, coupled with enormous amounts of borrowing, have led interest payments to rise to $970 billion last year, which is the equivalent of roughly $2,800 for every American. A chunk of that goes to foreign countries, including China.

The problem has been accelerating and will continue to do so. As recently as 2020, interest payments totaled “only” $345 billion, about a third of what they are now. As that year began, the national debt was $23 trillion. Six-and-a-half years later, it’s $40 trillion. 

Looking ahead, the Congressional Budget Office projects interest payments will grow to $2.1 trillion by 2036. And that’s based on lower assumptions than the current yield. According to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, if these higher yields continue, taxpayers would pay another $1.7 trillion in interest over the next decade.

Even if members of Congress were inclined to come and reason together, which they are not, achieving balance would be extremely difficult. The government last year spent $7.01 trillion while collecting only $5.23 trillion in revenues. The result was a $1.78 trillion deficit. You can’t find that kind of money under the seat cushions.

Put another way, government deficit spending now comprises 5.8% of the U.S. economy. We are maintaining our lifestyles by stealing from our grandchildren, which is the right word because borrowers get permission first. 

Further pressures will come as the nation’s unhealthy population ages, and Social Security and Medicare cost more and more.

For all of these reasons, federal policymakers aren’t even talking about balancing the budget any more. U.S. Rep. Steve Womack, R-Ark., and a few other congressmen have proposed creating a bipartisan commission to make recommendations. But even it would only be charged with bringing the deficit down to 3% of the economy within 10 years. It would be an improvement, but it’s not even close to balance.

Meanwhile, members of Congress continue to not only ignore the flames, but to fan them. The tax cuts in President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, supported last year by Arkansas’ congressional delegation, added another $4.7 trillion over 10 years, the Congressional Budget Office estimated.

Looking forward, there’s little reason to hope that Republicans and Democrats will work together and make politically hard choices. The problem will be ignored, until it can’t be.

I know this seems like a negative column, but I’ve been writing about this issue since roughly 1992. At that point, the national debt was only $4 trillion. It’s 10 times bigger after 34 years.

We’ll soon have another congressional election. The incumbents will win in Arkansas and most everywhere else. Nevertheless, voters should at least consider the debt among the list of things they care about. Any politician who tells them the government can keep cutting taxes and increasing spending is either misinformed or untruthful. Any politician who ignores it completely is derelict in their duty.

On a personal level, it’s not a bad idea for all of us to prepare for whatever might happen in the coming years. Some generation – maybe ours, maybe a future one – will likely face a fiscal crisis. 

In other words, it may be time to ask ourselves what we would do if times got harder, and Uncle Sam couldn’t bail us out.

© 2026 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

Steve Brawner’s column is syndicated to 24 news outlets in Arkansas. Email him at brawnersteve@mac.com.