By Steve Brawner, © 2019 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

Candidates in Arkansas filed for office last month, a year before the November 2020 elections, because state lawmakers moved the Republican and Democratic primaries to March 3 so the state would vote earlier and be more relevant in the presidential race.

They should have picked a later date. Being late might have made Arkansas more relevant than being early – and more importantly, being early means we’ll have fewer choices elsewhere on the ballot.

Lawmakers voted this year to move Arkansas’ primaries to March in presidential election years while keeping them in May in other years.

The logic makes sense. Because of the move, the state will be closer to the front of the line after only Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. Candidates theoretically will pay more attention to it, and Arkansans will vote while the race is still competitive.

Unfortunately, 13 other states were thinking the same thing and also will vote March 3. Almost all of them are bigger than Arkansas and some are much bigger, including California and Texas. So don’t expect any candidates to make anything more than a brief stop here. Continue reading The 2020 vote: Later would be better than earlier →

By Steve Brawner, © 2019 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

We’re barely into November 2019, and candidate filing for the November 2020 elections begins Monday and ends on the 12th. Here are six questions waiting to be answered over the course of the next year.

1. Has the red wave reached its peak? 

Republicans already occupy all the congressional and statewide offices and three-fourths of the Legislature. They can increase their state legislative majority by winning in a few spots, particularly in the few rural, conservative areas still represented by Democrats, while holding on to their own vulnerable seats.

Two races in the Senate will be interesting to watch. Sen. Eddie Cheatham, D-Crossett, faces a strong challenge from Republican Ben Gilmore, who has raised a lot of money and has friends in high places, having worked for U.S. Rep. Bruce Westerman and now for Lt. Gov. Tim Griffin. Republicans also will run businessman Charles Beckham against Sen. Bruce Maloch, D-Magnolia.

Meanwhile, in District 92 in Northwest Arkansas, freshman Rep. Megan Godfrey, D-Springdale, faces Republican Jed Duggar. Yes, he’s one of the 19 raised by Jim Bob and Michelle. The district’s demographic trends – it’s urban with a large Hispanic population – helped Godfrey get elected, and she’s young and dynamic and a fresh face. But Duggar will have his name, fame and other advantages. He’ll get several dozen votes from his family alone.

2. Will Rep. Mickey Gates, R-Hot Springs, file to run again after being expelled for failing to pay his taxes? 

No, he won’t. Next question. Continue reading Six questions as campaign filing begins →

By Steve Brawner, © 2019 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

Arkansas has never elected an African-American statewide official, and when it finally does, he or she likely will be a Republican.

And he or she probably will be someone like Leon Jones.

The state has taken such a sharp turn red-ward in recent years that to be elected to a statewide office, a candidate almost must run as a Republican – much as the Democrats were the default party for a century and a half. That’s why the first African-American official probably will come from that party.

Jones, 47, Gov. Asa Hutchinson’s appointee as executive director of the Fair Housing Commission, is gauging support before making a final decision on running for attorney general in 2022. The current attorney general, Leslie Rutledge, is term-limited. Jones previously served as Hutchinson’s Labor Department director.

If he runs, he’d be Arkansas’ first elected African-American statewide official and also the only African-American Republican currently elected to any position at the state level – unless one is elected in 2020 or alongside him in 2022. The state’s seven constitutional officers and six members of Congress are white Republicans. As of Oct. 8, the 135-member Arkansas Legislature was composed of 102 white Republicans and 33 Democrats, 15 of whom are African-Americans including the recently elected Denise Ennett of Little Rock. Continue reading GOP will produce Arkansas’ first statewide minority official →