By Steve Brawner, © 2019 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.
Candidates in Arkansas filed for office last month, a year before the November 2020 elections, because state lawmakers moved the Republican and Democratic primaries to March 3 so the state would vote earlier and be more relevant in the presidential race.
They should have picked a later date. Being late might have made Arkansas more relevant than being early – and more importantly, being early means we’ll have fewer choices elsewhere on the ballot.
Lawmakers voted this year to move Arkansas’ primaries to March in presidential election years while keeping them in May in other years.
The logic makes sense. Because of the move, the state will be closer to the front of the line after only Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. Candidates theoretically will pay more attention to it, and Arkansans will vote while the race is still competitive.
Unfortunately, 13 other states were thinking the same thing and also will vote March 3. Almost all of them are bigger than Arkansas and some are much bigger, including California and Texas. So don’t expect any candidates to make anything more than a brief stop here.
In fact, candidates this cycle have paid little attention to Arkansas despite the March 3 date. Sen. Bernie Sanders dropped by the Walmart shareholders’ meeting in June to make a point about worker pay. He really wasn’t here to visit Arkansas. Sen. Amy Klobuchar made a speech here. She ranks near the bottom of the polls. Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke also stopped by Arkansas. He recently dropped out of the race.
By the time Arkansas votes March 3, most of the other Democratic candidates also will have quit. Most of the Republican candidates had dropped out four years ago when the state also held its primary in March. Before or soon after Iowa and New Hampshire vote, the money dries up and candidates realize they can’t win.
So while the early debates included a couple of dozen candidates fighting for air time, by March 3 voters here will be choosing between former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Sanders, California Sen. Kamala Harris, and maybe a couple of others whose dying campaigns probably will end that day. If Harris doesn’t win California, she’ll give a concession speech that night.
Meanwhile, on the Republican side, only one of President Trump’s three announced opponents, former Massachusetts Gov. William Weld, has inquired about paying the state party’s $25,000 filing fee. He can’t win here and would be better off investing that money in Massachusetts.
If Arkansas really wanted to get the candidates’ attention, instead of trying to elbow its way to the front of the line, it should have hung back at the end.
The campaign ends in early June. Four states and the District of Columbia vote June 2, followed by the Virgin Islands on June 6. What if Arkansas had set its primary date on June 2, and what if the campaign were still competitive? Then it would get the candidates’ attention, despite its small size. Or what if Arkansas had made itself the last state and voted June 9, and the whole thing came down to voters here?
That last scenario is unlikely, but frankly, the presidential campaign shouldn’t be the main concern. The state gains little from a presidential candidate making a speech here. Most candidates will have quit by March 3. Most importantly, the early filing period discourages potential candidates from running for all the other offices because they have less time to decide and then must spend more time campaigning. In other words, incumbents are less likely to face challengers.
Instead of March, Arkansas should have all primary elections in May. Only six states vote that entire month in 2020, so the state would get more attention if the presidential race were competitive. There would be more candidates farther down the ballot and fewer unopposed incumbents, and no one would have to campaign for a year.
And really, when would you rather get out and go to the polls: the beginning of March, or the middle of May?