By Steve Brawner, © 2019 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

We’re barely into November 2019, and candidate filing for the November 2020 elections begins Monday and ends on the 12th. Here are six questions waiting to be answered over the course of the next year.

1. Has the red wave reached its peak? 

Republicans already occupy all the congressional and statewide offices and three-fourths of the Legislature. They can increase their state legislative majority by winning in a few spots, particularly in the few rural, conservative areas still represented by Democrats, while holding on to their own vulnerable seats.

Two races in the Senate will be interesting to watch. Sen. Eddie Cheatham, D-Crossett, faces a strong challenge from Republican Ben Gilmore, who has raised a lot of money and has friends in high places, having worked for U.S. Rep. Bruce Westerman and now for Lt. Gov. Tim Griffin. Republicans also will run businessman Charles Beckham against Sen. Bruce Maloch, D-Magnolia.

Meanwhile, in District 92 in Northwest Arkansas, freshman Rep. Megan Godfrey, D-Springdale, faces Republican Jed Duggar. Yes, he’s one of the 19 raised by Jim Bob and Michelle. The district’s demographic trends – it’s urban with a large Hispanic population – helped Godfrey get elected, and she’s young and dynamic and a fresh face. But Duggar will have his name, fame and other advantages. He’ll get several dozen votes from his family alone.

2. Will Rep. Mickey Gates, R-Hot Springs, file to run again after being expelled for failing to pay his taxes? 

No, he won’t. Next question.

3. Where can Democrats pick up seats? 

Democrats won’t make any gains in Congress. Their best chance because of demographics would be in the 2nd District in central Arkansas, but they’re struggling to find a candidate to run against Rep. French Hill. Someone will run, Democratic Party Chairman Michael John Gray told me. They do have a candidate for U.S. Senate and candidates in the 3rd and 4th Districts, but those seats should be safe for Republicans. Democrats haven’t found anyone to run in the 1st District against Rep. Rick Crawford.

There aren’t a lot of openings in the state Senate, either, but there are a few state House seats where the demographics and other factors give Democrats a chance. In District 32 in Pulaski County, attorney Ashley Hudson is challenging Rep. Jim Sorvillo. Gray said Democrat Clarke Tucker led that west Little Rock district in his unsuccessful 2018 congressional race, so that’s a potential pickup. Gray sounds hopeful that firefighter Matthew Stallings can win District 38, represented by Rep. Carlton Wing, R-North Little Rock. In District 7, pastor and El Dorado City Council member Bishop Calloway is running against Rep. Sonia Eubanks Barker, R-Smackover. That one might be interesting.

4. How will the early filing period affect the number of candidates? 

Legislators this year moved primary elections to March during presidential election years. The stated reason was to give Arkansas a greater say in the presidential nominating process, but another consequence is that candidates for every other office must decide earlier and campaign longer.

In other words, it helps incumbents. Gray told me Democrats would have had a candidate in the 1st District and more than one in the 2nd if they’d had more time to recruit.

5. How heated will the Little Rock School Board races become? 

School board races typically don’t attract much interest, but Little Rock’s elections next November will. Candidates will file for office next year, and then voters will elect an entirely new board as the district transitions out of state control. This could set up as a battle between school reformers backed by Walton money and traditional school advocates backed by union types.

6. Finally, how will the presidential election affect all of the above?

The 2020 race will be the ugliest of our lifetimes – worse even than 2016, which was terrible. It will overshadow all other races. President Trump will run strong in rural Arkansas, which will benefit Republican candidates there. But Democrats also will be motivated, which will affect districts where they have the numbers.

There’s little candidates can do about this besides run their race and ride the wave, or try to keep from being swamped.