By Steve Brawner, © 2020 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

While Arkansas’ voters will be casting their ballots in March and November this year, the state’s two U.S. senators will be looking toward future elections. For Sen. John Boozman, it’s 2022. For Sen. Tom Cotton, it’s 2024.

Cotton is up for re-election this year but doesn’t have to worry about campaigning. That’s because the Democrats’ candidate, Josh Mahony, abruptly and with little explanation quit the race hours after the filing period ended, leaving the party with no legal path toward finding a replacement.

There is a Libertarian candidate, Ricky Harrington Jr., who will need a favorable court ruling to stay on the ballot, and an independent, Daniel Whitfield, who must collect 10,000 verified signatures of registered voters.

Regardless, Cotton easily will win re-election and would have been re-elected if Mahony had stayed in the race, or against any Democrat. Maybe Mike Beebe could have made it interesting.

But now he doesn’t even have to bother with it. In fact, he’s not really an Arkansas figure anymore, but instead he’s a national one with obvious presidential ambitions. Instead of campaigning in Arkansas, he can invest his time and his millions of campaign dollars on increasing his national profile. Within three years, he’ll be spending as much time in Iowa and New Hampshire as he does in Arkansas.

In contrast, Arkansas’ senior senator, Sen. John Boozman, has never been a national figure and in fact has been a quiet state one. In the latest Arkansas Poll by University of Arkansas political scientist Dr. Janine Parry, 31% of very likely voters didn’t offer an opinion as to whether they approved or disapproved of him. Only 16% offered no opinion about Cotton.

Boozman told Talk Business & Politics this month that he’s planning on running for re-election in 2022. He’s 69 and has had health problems in the past, but he appears ready for another race. A big motivation is potentially chairing the Senate Agriculture Committee. He’s the second highest ranking member behind the chairman, Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts, who is retiring, so he’ll likely get that slot next year.

The Agriculture Committee chairmanship would be a plum assignment for Arkansas and a good fit for Boozman, so it’s understandable why he would want to stay in politics for a term that would end when he is 78 years old.

But this election cycle could affect his calculations, because it will determine who controls the Senate and who becomes chairman.

Republicans have a 53-47 majority, which means they would maintain control with 51 senators, or 50 if President Trump is re-elected. (The vice president casts the tie-breaking vote.)

Thirty-five seats are up for re-election, of which 23 are held by Republicans, so they’re defending a lot of turf. Republicans are vulnerable in several races, particularly in Maine, Colorado, North Carolina, and Arizona, where Sen. Martha McSally was appointed to the office after losing the 2018 Senate race to a Democrat. Meanwhile, Republicans will probably flip Alabama, currently held by Democrat Sen. Doug Jones.

If Republicans maintain Senate control after November, then Boozman would go into 2022 as Agriculture Committee chairman and would likely follow through on his plans for re-election. But if Democrats win control of the Senate, then Boozman would be only the ranking minority member, a major step down. And if Trump loses the election and Democrats maintain control of the House, then would Boozman really want to spend his early 70s in Washington waiting for his party to return to power?

Whatever happens in 2020, Boozman will have to consider the lay of the land in 2022. Depending on what happens in Arizona this year, Republicans will be defending 21 or 22 Senate seats, including his, compared to 12 or 13 defended by the Democrats.

A lot can change by then, and besides, you don’t become a U.S. senator unless you’re willing to take risks. However, even risk-takers make calculations, and Boozman could have plenty to calculate by 2022.

I’m pretty sure Cotton has made his calculations. His next appearance on a ballot will be in 2020 in Arkansas, but he’s already looking to the one after that – in Iowa in 2024.