By Steve Brawner, © 2019 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

The country had a first-term Republican president elected after losing the popular vote whom Democrats desperately wanted to defeat. The party’s early frontrunner was the party’s previous choice for vice president. A fiery liberal insurgent gained support even as there were questions about electability. Ultimately, Democrats chose the candidate they thought gave them the best chance to win in November.

That paragraph describes the 2020 campaign up until the last sentence, which still remains to be written this year. But it also describes the last time Democrats were trying to unseat a first-term Republican president in 2004.

Can that election provide a roadmap for 2020? It’s worth a quick study.

Sixteen years ago, the animosity Democrats had toward President George W. Bush was nothing like what exists today toward President Trump, but they very much wanted to beat him. He’d won four years earlier despite losing the popular vote, the national unity after the September 11 attacks had worn off, and many Democrats firmly opposed the war in Iraq. The Democratic field consisted of nine credible candidates – less than the two dozen candidates running this year – but that’s still a lot of choices.

A year before the 2004 primaries, the party’s frontrunner was Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, who had been the Democrats’ vice presidential nominee four years earlier. But many Democrats were looking for someone to speak forcefully to their frustration with the war and with Bush. Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean rose to the top of the field presenting an uncompromising, antiwar, populist message. In a New York Times/CBS News poll in mid-December 2003, he led with 23% support, and other polls showed him with even higher numbers.

Late in the campaign, a new face appeared. Gen. Wesley Clark, NATO’s supreme commander during the 1999 war in Kosovo and an Arkansan, announced he was entering the race in Little Rock in September 2003. Clark was best known for his success outside of politics and indeed wasn’t even a Democrat the year before.

While all of this was happening, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry was struggling to gain a foothold. In that December 2003 survey where Dean had 23% support, Kerry polled at only 4%.

But in January, Kerry won Iowa with 38% support, followed by South Carolina Sen. John Edwards with 32%.

Dean won only 18% support. Like all frontrunners, he’d been fielding attacks from his rivals, and questions were arising about his temperament. Then after he lost Iowa, television viewers witnessed what became known as the “Dean scream.” Before a deafening crowd, he unleashed a fiery speech followed by an exuberant yell. The television coverage did not capture the raucous environment, while the microphones picked up only his voice, not the crowd’s. He looked unhinged and became a national joke. It wasn’t a fair characterization of what actually happened, but the damage was done.

After Iowa, the election was effectively over. Kerry next won New Hampshire and steamrolled to the nomination. By the time Arkansas voted May 18, there were only two other candidates on the ballot, and one of those was the extremist Lyndon LaRouche. In November, Kerry lost to Bush in a close election.

Much has changed since 2004. The country has become more polarized. Few had heard of Facebook in 2004, and the iPhone hadn’t been invented.

But there are many similarities between 2004 and 2020 that are worth considering. Once again, Democrats are trying to unseat a first-term Republican president who was elected despite losing the popular vote. This election cycle, the party’s early frontrunner was Joe Biden, who was the vice president four years ago just as Lieberman had been the Democrats’ most recent vice presidential candidate. Biden has never faded, but he’s never really caught fire, either. Playing the role of uncompromising populist this year have been Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, though neither has ever taken a clear lead in the polls. Will they fade like Dean did as Democratic voters decide beating Trump is more important than changing the world?

And just like Gen. Clark was a party outsider who entered the 2004 race late, this cycle features former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, a former Republican whose biggest success came outside of politics in business. He didn’t officially announce his candidacy until November.

For Democrats, two big, unanswered questions remain to be answered: First, who will be this year’s John Kerry? And second, what if there’s not one?

Steve Brawner is a syndicated columnist in Arkansas. Email him at brawnersteve@mac.com. Follow him on Twitter at @stevebrawner.