We learned this week that it’s statistically possible that the only Republican voters in eastern Arkansas’ 1st District who don’t approve of President Trump are the half a dozen who said so in a poll.

The survey by Talk Business & Politics and Hendrix College found that 96.6 percent of respondents in that district said they approve of Trump’s performance. It polled 676 likely Republican primary voters statewide, or about 169 per congressional district, though it wasn’t exactly that. If it were, that would mean somewhere around six voters in the 1st said they didn’t approve of Trump or didn’t know, while the rest approve.

But the survey had a margin of error of 3.8 percent both ways, and 96.6 plus 3.8 equals more than 100. So who knows – maybe those are the only six?

In contrast, according to Gallup, Trump’s approval rating nationally among all Americans is 38 percent.

Elsewhere in Arkansas, Trump’s approval ratings among likely Republican primary voters aren’t quite as high as in the 1st, but they’re still in the stratosphere. Statewide, 86 percent said they approve of the job he is doing. In the 4th District in southern and western Arkansas, 91.3 percent do. Like the 1st, it’s mostly rural. According to the poll, Trump has higher than 80 percent approval ratings in the 2nd (central) and 3rd (northwest) districts, the two with larger urban populations.

It’s now partly Trump’s party

Of course Republican officeholders are aware of Trump’s popularity among their own base voters, and they have to respond to it. Whether or not they agree with what he does (or says, or tweets), they must always cast a sideways glance at those poll numbers, and ultimately climb aboard the Trump train. They know that some of the Republicans who have been most critical of Trump (Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake and Tennessee Sen. Bob Corker) or have struggled most to make their peace with him (Speaker Paul Ryan) now won’t even be running for re-election this year.

Since 1980, and arguably before, the Republican Party has been the party of Ronald Reagan. He defined it as the party of less government.

But now the Republican Party is also the party of Donald Trump.

He’s filled in the gaps between Republicans and their voters

During and after the campaign, Trump has filled in the gap between Republican officeholders and Republican voters. While Republican officeholders have favored free trade, some Republican voters have been hurt by it. Trump recognized that and talks tough on trade. While Republican officeholders favored cuts to Social Security and Medicare, many Republican voters would have lost benefits if that happened. Trump promised not to touch them. While Republican officeholders didn’t prioritize illegal immigration, many Republican voters felt threatened by it. Trump rode into office on that issue. And more than any other candidate, Trump spoke to Republican voters’ fears and concerns during this time of economic and cultural upheaval. If some of his speech is offensive or unpresidential or appeals to Americans’ less noble instincts, they haven’t punished him for it.

Since coming into office, Trump has governed in ways that both many Republican officeholders and Republican voters have liked. He’s cut taxes, bombed Syria, and appointed conservative judges. But he’s also governed in ways that appealed mostly just to Republican voters – promising a wall, threatening a trade war with China. Some of the things he says and tweets puts Republican officeholders in awkward positions.

Those officeholders have had to adjust, follow, and to some extent, fundamentally change. It will be interesting to watch what happens once Trump is out of office in three or seven years. Will the GOP change back and be just Reagan’s party again? Can it?

One last thing about those poll numbers: Smart Arkansas Democrats are reading them too. Just because Arkansans vote in a Republican primary doesn’t make them Republicans. Some just vote there, so it’s not just GOP activists who support him. While there are pockets in the state where bashing Trump might get Democrats elected, in many races they’re probably better off choosing a different direction.

Republican candidates don’t really have that choice. Like it or not, they’re riding the Trump train for a while.

By Steve Brawner, © 2018 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.