By Steve Brawner, © 2019 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.
The Democratic Party of Arkansas Monday announced it won’t field a candidate in next year’s U.S. Senate race, because it probably can’t.
That’s because the party’s only announced candidate, Josh Mahony, announced two hours after filing had closed Nov. 12 that he was quitting the race because of unspecified “family health concerns.” He had no communication with the party before the announcement and little afterwards until he hired an attorney who basically said only that Mahony is not the one who is sick.
That means that, under Arkansas law, the Democrats probably can’t replace him. If they tried, the Republicans have said they would sue, and they’re probably right and, besides, they can better afford to pay for the lawyers. Plus, no Democrat is going to beat Sen. Tom Cotton next year, anyway.
The timing of Mahony’s exit from the race raised a lot of eyebrows. It could be that someone in the family got some bad news at 12:49 p.m. Nov. 12 after the filing period closed. But that’s also the time I received a press release from the Republicans saying they were filing a Federal Election Commission complaint against Mahony for falsifying his campaign finance reports. Mahoney had listed himself as a “small business owner” despite actually being unemployed and relying on his wife’s income.
The only real news there was that the Republican Party had filed the complaint. The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette had already reported about Mahony’s lack of employment and FEC reporting inconsistencies. In fact, he had told the newspaper he couldn’t remember the last time he had a full-time job.
Mahony had been an aggressive, enthusiastic campaigner. He’d given no indication he was considering quitting and isn’t talking now. Perhaps a family member has a health issue, and the FEC report was a last straw in what he realized was an unwinnable race. Then again, why did he hire a lawyer merely to tell Democrats that he’s healthy?
Since the announcement, the state Democratic Party publicly has wished Mahony and his family well, but they’d certainly appreciate some answers. Chairman Michael John Gray told me, “I don’t really know what other road we have to take other than the high road and move forward and work hard for the candidates that did choose to run.”
Gray told me that if Mahony had dropped out two hours before the filing period ended rather than two hours afterwards, he could have found a candidate. More than one were talking about it.
That begged the question, why didn’t one of them run in the first place? Mahony was not a strong candidate. His problems had already been reported. He’d won only 33% running for the House of Representatives against U.S. Rep. Steve Womack last year.
Gray explained that Mahony entered the race early and secured the public support of some influential Democrats. Those other potential candidates knew they’d be scaling a steep cliff trying to unseat Cotton in a Republican state and didn’t want to add a primary battle on top of that.
Now the Democrats lack a candidate in Arkansas’ most high-profile race next year, which doesn’t look good for a party trying to rebuild itself across the state. On the other hand, it can focus its attention and limited resources elsewhere. It has credible candidates in three congressional races, and several of its incumbent state legislators face tough battles against Republican challengers.
The Democrats have had an ongoing discussion about lowering their filing fees as a way to attract more candidates. Mahony paid $12,000 to enter the race. Perhaps they should make it harder to run to ensure they have good, committed candidates. Gray said it’s difficult for parties to prevent people from running, but the party “should ask the hard questions internally” about its candidates.
The party’s state committee meets Dec. 7. Gray said committee members will discuss next steps and probably vent some. He doesn’t want the party to be too reactive to this event. Democrats also will discuss supporting their candidates in 2020 and recruiting candidates for 2022.
That’s when Republican U.S. Sen. John Boozman will be up for re-election, assuming he runs again, and the governor’s seat will be open.
Democrats need to find candidates who will file for those races, and then stay filed.