March 5, 2020
By Steve Brawner
© 2020 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.
The presidential candidate who ran the worst campaign – in fact, barely ran a campaign at all here in Arkansas – was the big winner on Tuesday, which begs the question about the value of campaigning itself.
Former Vice President Joe Biden started this cycle as the frontrunner in a crowded field, but for much of its early stages he did little to solidify that status. He was shaky in debates, he didn’t seem to have a national following, and he trailed in fundraising. Americans had become accustomed to his goofy likability when he was vice president, but his performance these past few months created real doubts as to whether he is up to the job – doubts that persist. And, you’ll recall, there was that brief scandal about him being, not adulterous, but inappropriately affectionate with women.
Meanwhile, other candidates were doing all the things you’re supposed to do to win an election. Sen. Bernie Sanders was exciting the masses and building a national movement. Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg was spending hundreds of millions of dollars on advertising (and came to Arkansas three times, while Biden barely advertised here, never visited and instead sent his wife). Sen. Elizabeth Warren was a much better debater and offered detailed policy plans. Mayor Pete Buttigieg won Iowa, sort of, and almost won New Hampshire.
Then, just as it looked like Biden’s campaign was dying, he won South Carolina big.
At that point, everything was falling into place, but we just didn’t realize how much. Democrats everywhere were becoming terrified that Sanders would win the nomination and then lose the election, ensuring four more years of President Trump while dragging the party down with him. Bloomberg was terrible in his first debate and not very good in his second. Seeing the race was becoming a choice between either Biden or Bernie, Buttigieg and Sen. Amy Klobuchar dropped out and endorsed Biden.
Going into Super Tuesday, I thought the best Biden could do was stay within striking distance of Sanders, who was leading in California and Texas. Instead, Biden won 10 states, including Texas, after having never won a single state in his first two presidential runs. He started the night by winning Virginia and then just kept winning, and he ended up winning Arkansas with 41% of the vote. Sanders was second here with 22%, while Bloomberg, despite the millions he spent and his three visits, was third with less than 17%.
I’m 50 years old. I’ve seen politicians fall very quickly. I’ve never seen one make a comeback like Biden just did, especially considering he did so little to make it happen.
I’m sure it’s nice to have money at your disposal, a slick ad campaign, a big field staff, and all those other things modern campaigns are supposed to have. But maybe they’re not always so important. In fact, they’re probably vasty overrated.
Four years ago, Hillary Clinton outspent then-candidate Trump two-to-one, and yet look who won. As Biden and Trump have demonstrated, maybe in the age of Facebook and the internet it’s more about putting yourself in a position where you can be successful, and then it’s about timing and having something to sell that people want to buy at that particular moment. In 2016, many Americans wanted a disruptor, and that was Trump. This year, many Democrats just want someone they think can win. That candidate happens to be the one who people are the most comfortable with personally, even though he hasn’t run a good campaign.
Politics is often full of surprises, and the last two election cycles definitely have been surprising. Trump broke all the rules in 2016 and was elected over Clinton, who her entire political career had played by the rules she thought existed.
Maybe the old rules about campaigning no longer apply. Maybe they never really did. They didn’t Tuesday.
Steve Brawner is a syndicated columnist in Arkansas. Email him at brawnersteve@mac.com. Follow him on Twitter at @stevebrawner.