Feb. 27, 2020

By Steve Brawner
© 2020 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

Looks like Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton was on track Jan. 30 when he called the COVID-19 coronavirus “the biggest and most important story in the world.”

Time will tell if it’s actually the biggest and most important story, but it’s definitely big and important.

As of Thursday, the virus has killed nearly 3,000 people, mostly in China where it originated, and led to widespread quarantines in that country. More than 80,000 people have been infected globally. Outbreaks are happening in South Korea, Italy, and elsewhere. The leader of Iran’s virus task force tested positive one day after telling his country not to overreact to the disease. The International Olympic Committee’s longest serving member this week suggested the Tokyo Summer Olympics could be cancelled. Probably not coincidentally, Japan is closing all its schools for a month.

President Trump on Wednesday announced he was appointing Vice President Mike Pence to head the nation’s anti-coronavirus efforts. Only 60 Americans have been infected so far, most coming from a single cruise ship. But the latest person hasn’t traveled or come in close contact with anyone known to be infected. That’s concerning. On Tuesday, Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said the virus will spread here, though the CDC can’t know how much. Regardless, she said Americans should “prepare for the expectation that this might be bad.” Life here could be disrupted and marked by “social distancing measures” such as closing schools. There’s no vaccine, yet.

It should be noted that while the coronavirus has infected 80,000 and killed 3,000 worldwide, the flu has infected 29 million people, hospitalized 280,000, and contributed to the deaths of 16,000 in the United States alone, according to the CDC. There have been 65 influenza-related deaths in Arkansas. If the two viruses had arisen from China concurrently, the flu would be the biggest and most important story in the world. But we tend to react to new threats with more urgency than familiar ones.

What matters most about the coronavirus outbreak is the lives that are being lost, of course. But there are other considerations, including economic ones. Fears of the disease and China’s response, including quarantining millions of people, are producing ripple effects in the American economy. You can’t shut down part of a major U.S. supplier (and to a lesser extent, market) without consequences. Here’s one: By Thursday, the Dow Jones had dropped 3,200 points this week. And here’s another: We’re running out of medical masks – because they’re largely made in China, where demand is very high.

The U.S. economy is in the midst of its longest expansion in modern history, but if the global economy stalls because of the coronavirus and other factors, so will ours. Meanwhile, presidential elections are another headwind facing the economy. Businesses hesitate to act amidst uncertainty. Will the country be led next year by Trump, Sen. Bernie Sanders or someone else? Since businesses don’t know, they’ll hold off on making investments and taking risks.

That brings us to one more consideration – the one that always lurks in the background – which is politics. The coronavirus could become both a health care and an economic issue in an election where health care and the economy were already destined to be front and center.

As for Cotton, he deserves credit for identifying the virus as a threat earlier than most elected officials. He told the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette he’s discussed the issue with Trump a half-dozen times since mid-January.

He also has said the virus didn’t originate in a Chinese animal market, which has been generally believed but not proven, and has questioned if it instead perhaps came from a nearby research laboratory. The unsubstantiated charge has gotten him a lot of attention and some criticism, neither of which he minds. He has argued repeatedly that he’s only asking questions of the secretive Chinese government.

That’s enough political and economic talk about this big and important health story. Stay well and wash your hands frequently. We can never know what the future will bring, but the flu’s definitely still going around now.

Steve Brawner is a syndicated columnist in Arkansas. Email him at brawnersteve@mac.com. Follow him on Twitter at @stevebrawner.