Category Archives: Politics

Is Arkansas the reddest state?

Politics, State government, U.S. Congress

By Steve Brawner, © 2020 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

Is Arkansas “the reddest state not only in the South but in the entire nation”? That’s what state Republican Party Chairman Doyle Webb said during his part of the roll call vote at the Republican National Convention.

Twelve years ago, that statement was unimaginable. Arkansas had been dominated by Democrats since the Civil War and had produced the nation’s previous president.

Now? All six members of Arkansas’ congressional delegation, its seven constitutional officers, and three-fourths of its state Legislature are Republicans. In the 2016 election, Trump beat Hillary Clinton, Arkansas’ first lady for 12 years back when Arkansas was one of the nation’s bluest states, by a 61-34% margin.

Arkansas still has many Democratic elected officials at the county level who have not yet retired, switched parties or lost. But Webb didn’t say Arkansas was the most Republican state. He called it the reddest, which is more of a national and state description and speaks to voter outlooks and trends.

Is he right? Let’s compare. Continue reading Is Arkansas the reddest state? →

How to make the Electoral College better

Politics

By Steve Brawner
© 2020 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

There’s a saying: Don’t make the perfect the enemy of the good. Here’s a new one: Don’t make the good the enemy of the better. The Electoral College definitely could be better.

The Electoral College has served us reasonably well for two-and-a-half centuries, but its flaws are being exposed. Thanks largely to its winner-take-all system, the loser of the popular vote has won two of the past five elections. The country’s deepening red-blue division means only a few swing states are in play, allowing candidates to ignore the rest – including Arkansas. Unless you live in one of those swing states, your vote really doesn’t affect the outcome.

This election, like recent ones, will be decided in those swing states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. If 39,000 voters in those three states had voted for Hillary Clinton instead of President Trump, an entirely different set of people on my Facebook feed would be mad all the time. Clinton lost despite having 2.9 million more votes nationwide. Meanwhile, the 2000 election was decided by 537 votes in Florida.

So guess where the candidates will be focusing their attention? Not blood red Arkansas. The Democratic candidate will ignore us, and Trump can take us for granted.

Supporters of the Electoral College say it helps small states like Arkansas, but that’s not necessarily true. Because of its winner-take-all system, it potentially gives outsized influence to big states. A candidate can win the 270 needed Electoral College votes by winning the 12 biggest states by one vote each and not even be on the ballot in the other 38. Continue reading How to make the Electoral College better →

What can 2004 tell us about 2020?

Elections, Politics

By Steve Brawner, © 2019 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

The country had a first-term Republican president elected after losing the popular vote whom Democrats desperately wanted to defeat. The party’s early frontrunner was the party’s previous choice for vice president. A fiery liberal insurgent gained support even as there were questions about electability. Ultimately, Democrats chose the candidate they thought gave them the best chance to win in November.

That paragraph describes the 2020 campaign up until the last sentence, which still remains to be written this year. But it also describes the last time Democrats were trying to unseat a first-term Republican president in 2004.

Can that election provide a roadmap for 2020? It’s worth a quick study. Continue reading What can 2004 tell us about 2020? →

What we know, expect, and can only guess in 2020

Politics

By Steve Brawner, © 2020 by Steve Brawner Communications, Inc.

As 2019 fades into 2020, some things in politics we know, some things we can expect, and some things we can only guess.

First, here’s what we know: President Trump has been impeached. Here’s what we can expect: The Senate will certainly acquit him (whenever the House finally presents the case), with Arkansas Sens. Tom Cotton and John Boozman voting alongside their Republican colleagues in support of the president. We also can expect an extremely interesting greeting, or lack of one, between Trump and Speaker Nancy Pelosi when Trump arrives to give the State of the Union address Feb. 4.

But here’s what we can only guess: the difference it will make in the 2020 elections. Will a majority of swing voters decide impeachment was an overreach and punish Democrats? Or will it increase their desire to remove Trump the old-fashioned way, at the ballot box? Or will impeachment even matter by next November? Continue reading What we know, expect, and can only guess in 2020 →